NY13 Blog; Retaking NY-13 from Rep. Vito Fossella

Following the corruption, ineffectiveness and hypocrisy of Rep. Vito Fossella.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Fox News has bad news for Republicans


Finished on Wednesday, Fox News (perhaps not surprisingly) is the most favorable for the GOP. But it would be a real stretch to call it favorable. Bush's job approval rests at 40% (53% disapproval), which is unchanged since two weeks ago. The generic ballot creeps out a couple of points, as Democrats move into double digits in this poll as well, with an 11-point lead (49-38).

via Stu Rothenberg;

With the national environment being as it is - and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains - Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP's 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.

The paucity of competitive districts limits Republican risk, but how much? Unfortunately, I don't have an answer. But if redistricting cuts that kind of wave by half, Democrats would gain between 22 and 30 seats next month. And if the new districts slice Democratic gains by a smaller but still significant one-third, Democrats would pick up from 30 to 45 seats.

Dangerously big waves can be very strong and very unpredictable. They can bring widespread destruction and chaos. Republicans now must hope that this year's midterm wave isn't as bad as national poll numbers suggest it could be, because those national numbers suggest a truly historic tidal wave.


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