7th most likely seat to flip

Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post does a Friday roundup of House races likely to flip party control. He lists NY13 as #7 this week, up from #10 previously;

7. New York's 13th district (R): Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for House Republicans, their candidate in the race to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R), chased from office by scandal, drops dead of a heart attack. Former state Assemblyman Robert Straniere (R), a somewhat controversial figure even within his own party, is stepping into the void but New York City Councilman Mike McMahon (D) is the favorite. (Previous ranking: 10)

I am not sure I buy it being so far down the list. Most of the one's he lists ahead of it are good choices, Dan Maffei for example. However his choice of TX-22 being more likely to flip to Republican control is a stretch and seems out of line with most analysts. It does seem like people are grasping for some sign of Republican strength this year, and this may be there example. Additionally in either his haste of desire to condense the state of the race he neglects to mention the primaries on both sides of the ticket.