NY13 Blog; Retaking NY-13 from Rep. Vito Fossella

Following the corruption, ineffectiveness and hypocrisy of Rep. Vito Fossella.

Monday, May 22, 2006

NY13, Safe Republican

CQPolitics has the seat as a safe seat for Fossella. Here are the NY seats, with the 2004 percentages (Rep/Dem):

No Favorite
NY24 - Boehlert (retiring)

Republican Favored
NY19 - Kelly (67/33)
NY20 - Sweeney (66/33)
NY23 - Walsh (91, no major dem opponent)
NY29 - Kuhl (50/41)

Safe Republican
NY03 - King (63/37)
NY13 - FOSSELLA (59/41)
NY23 - McHugh (71/29)
NY26 - Reynolds (56/44)

In 2004 NY13 was the third closest seat that did not flip to a Democrat. Now it is at best the seventh best chance for a pickup ahead of only NY03 and 23. King in NY03 currently does not have a major Democratic competitor.


At 10:28 AM, Blogger Kurt Kaletka said...

Harrison looks like a good candidate. Why can't he get things off the ground? Maybe it's a tad early yet. The primaries themselves are in September, right? I'm guessing that things might heat up then.

Do you think that Fossella could be in for a surprise or two this fall? Considering that Democrats are energized and unified with popular Senate and gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, while Republicans are depressed and divided, with no popular statewide candidates on the ballot. This is the kind of thing that could convince Republicans to stay home this November, you know?

Mr. Harrison has a shot, but it's still too early to count our chickens. Good luck to him, I'd say.

At 7:45 PM, Blogger tomrlutong said...

Despite this, thedistrict looks very winable. In your interview with Harrison, he talks about how this is only a 33k vote swing. You've got no reason for Republicans to go to the polls, a great top bill for the dems, and 88k recruitable non-voters?


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