NY13, Safe Republican
CQPolitics has the seat as a safe seat for Fossella. Here are the NY seats, with the 2004 percentages (Rep/Dem):
No Favorite
NY24 - Boehlert (retiring)
Republican Favored
NY19 - Kelly (67/33)
NY20 - Sweeney (66/33)
NY23 - Walsh (91, no major dem opponent)
NY29 - Kuhl (50/41)
Safe Republican
NY03 - King (63/37)
NY13 - FOSSELLA (59/41)
NY23 - McHugh (71/29)
NY26 - Reynolds (56/44)
In 2004 NY13 was the third closest seat that did not flip to a Democrat. Now it is at best the seventh best chance for a pickup ahead of only NY03 and 23. King in NY03 currently does not have a major Democratic competitor.
posted by me @ 11:04 AM
1 Comments:
Harrison looks like a good candidate. Why can't he get things off the ground? Maybe it's a tad early yet. The primaries themselves are in September, right? I'm guessing that things might heat up then.
Do you think that Fossella could be in for a surprise or two this fall? Considering that Democrats are energized and unified with popular Senate and gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, while Republicans are depressed and divided, with no popular statewide candidates on the ballot. This is the kind of thing that could convince Republicans to stay home this November, you know?
Mr. Harrison has a shot, but it's still too early to count our chickens. Good luck to him, I'd say.
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