Fossella and the PVI
From the Cook Political Report;
"PVI: The Partisan Voting Index (PVI) is a measurement of how each district performs compared to the nation as a whole. The PVI listed here reflects the results of 2000 and 2004. A PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential election, the district per formed an average of two percentage points more Democratic than the nation as a whole, while an R+3 score means that the district per formed three points more Republican than did the nation."
The Cook Report lists its 2008 potentially competitive races, listing Rep. Vito Fossella as tied for the 12th most endangered Congressional seat based on the PVI. NY13 is listed as D+1, which does not bode well for a Republican running for re-election in a presidential year, since the district is trending to turnout for Democratic Presidential candidates more so than Republicans.
Two Republican incumbents from NY are listed with a more dangerous PVI, and that is Rep. Walsh with a D+3 and Rep. Peter King (NY-03) with a D+2. Walsh barely squeaked past Maffei and King had a late entering opponent in Mejias, who if he runs again should give King a real fight for his seat.
Hall and Arcuri flipped seats with an R+1 PVI and Gillibrand did so in a district with a R+3 PVI. This is not good news for Rep. Vito Fossella