Fossella for Mayor?

And I hear you saying but he can't represent his own district why does he think he can do any better with 8 million constituents? But alas there inevitably is talk about running for something and lately it has been mayor, not of Vail, New York City.

So why would he run? New York City is one of the few places where running for mayor is a promotion from Congress. Rep. Anthony Weiner tried in 2005. So it is not uncommon. Should Fossella run for Mayor he would not have to give up his seat (see Weiner in 2005) unless he won. If he decided to run it would raise many questions about his faith in being able to retain his Congressional seat and/or foretelling his long term status in a minority party in the House. Of course these scenarios would probably come more into play for the 2013 race (if he were still around) where the thirteenth district will more than likely look different after a census and redistricting.

So why is he not going to run? Well for starters he won't win.

1. The Bloomberg model requires Fossella to first be socially liberal, which he is not, and wealthy enough to influence the election, which he clearly is not as evidenced by his inability to even raise funds for his own re-election campaign.

2. Likely Republican candidate for mayor, John Catsimatidis, owner of Gristedes, is donating to Fossella's re-election campaign. Both him and his wife have maxed out their primary donations at $2,300 each. via the NY Times;

"John A. Catsimatidis, the supermarket mogul, has taken a page from Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's playbook, switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican -- in anticipation of a mayoral bid in 2009."

3. The inevitable loss (see 1 and 2) would only hurt his chances for carrying the party torch in state wide races where he could actually break 30% before getting some lobbying job. How many Republican nominees for Senate or Governor were given more than one shot? Rep. Lazio, anyone? Should Sen. Clinton vacate her Senate seat, Governor Spitzer would appoint someone to fill it until the end of the term in 2012, where there would be a highly contested primary. With the thinning of the Republican Congressional ranks in the state he is becoming an endangered species; the sacrificial Republican.

I see no benefit to him whatsoever to run for mayor, with the publicity generated from questions like these only raising his name recognition and perception that he is widely liked by voters. Don't carry his water for him by giving these stories any validity.

update: for a good perspective on all of this talk see Dan Rivoli's piece Will Fossella be the Elephant in the Room?