Fossella for Mayor?

And I hear you saying but he can't represent his own district why does he think he can do any better with 8 million constituents? But alas there inevitably is talk about running for something and lately it has been mayor, not of Vail, New York City.

So why would he run? New York City is one of the few places where running for mayor is a promotion from Congress. Rep. Anthony Weiner tried in 2005. So it is not uncommon. Should Fossella run for Mayor he would not have to give up his seat (see Weiner in 2005) unless he won. If he decided to run it would raise many questions about his faith in being able to retain his Congressional seat and/or foretelling his long term status in a minority party in the House. Of course these scenarios would probably come more into play for the 2013 race (if he were still around) where the thirteenth district will more than likely look different after a census and redistricting.

So why is he not going to run? Well for starters he won't win.

1. The Bloomberg model requires Fossella to first be socially liberal, which he is not, and wealthy enough to influence the election, which he clearly is not as evidenced by his inability to even raise funds for his own re-election campaign.

2. Likely Republican candidate for mayor, John Catsimatidis, owner of Gristedes, is donating to Fossella's re-election campaign. Both him and his wife have maxed out their primary donations at $2,300 each. via the NY Times;

"John A. Catsimatidis, the supermarket mogul, has taken a page from Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's playbook, switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican -- in anticipation of a mayoral bid in 2009."

3. The inevitable loss (see 1 and 2) would only hurt his chances for carrying the party torch in state wide races where he could actually break 30% before getting some lobbying job. How many Republican nominees for Senate or Governor were given more than one shot? Rep. Lazio, anyone? Should Sen. Clinton vacate her Senate seat, Governor Spitzer would appoint someone to fill it until the end of the term in 2012, where there would be a highly contested primary. With the thinning of the Republican Congressional ranks in the state he is becoming an endangered species; the sacrificial Republican.

I see no benefit to him whatsoever to run for mayor, with the publicity generated from questions like these only raising his name recognition and perception that he is widely liked by voters. Don't carry his water for him by giving these stories any validity.

update: for a good perspective on all of this talk see Dan Rivoli's piece Will Fossella be the Elephant in the Room?

Fielding a candidate for this seat, UPDATED

Since I promised to touch on this eventually in my prior post Financing a Run at this Seat, and following yesterday's nudging of Assemblyman Cusick into the race by Rep. Weiner, there seems to be no better time than now for this. The premise in the link above is that the DCCC have their hopes set on a certain candidate or at least of preferred candidates in light of their early targeting of Rep. Vito Fossella .

Before we jump into this I want to state that DCCC backing does not create a campaign victory (see Lois Murphy, Tammy Duckworth in '06) and candidates can certainly win without the DCCC's support (see McNerney, Shea Porter in '06). With the right candidate, DCCC support would certainly make this an even more competitive race but does not make or break a Congressional race. And so the candidates;

01 State Senator Diane Savino: Diane Savino clearly has to be the favored candidate for many organizations. Her seat includes the North Shore of Staten Island, Councilman McMahon's district as well as parts of Brooklyn. She lives in Fort Wadsworth in Staten Island, something of a pre-requisite almost in any talk for viable candidates. The last two nominations have been from the Brooklyn section of this district, which encompasses only a small portion of the Congressional district and thus often sets up the talking point of them being somewhat of an 'outsider' since they are not a Staten Islander. Her background though is what propels her to the top spot on this list;

In her work to preserve the rights of her fellow workers, Diane Savino rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs of her union – the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME. In that role she represented 16,000 public sector workers and their families at City Hall and the State Capital. Diane Savino is one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State and is known throughout the state as a fierce advocate for working families.

Frank Barbaro, a former long shoreman and labor advocate in the Assembly, managed to tap union support for $187,750 in his race in 2004. That number alone eclipses the total fund raising efforts of Harrison's 2006 campaign. For a candidate to draw the attention of the DCCC they will need to raise significant amounts of money early on, and Diane Savino would be able to do this if she can mirror Barbaro's success. All that though may be just wishful thinking. With the Democratic state senate victory by Craig Johnson on Long Island, would Gov. Spitzer and the state party allow Savino to give up her senate seat when Democrats see majority control in their grasp? While it may not be hard to hold on to her state senate seat I can't see the party asking her to run.

02 Assemblyman Mike Cusick: Yesterday's news of Rep. Weiner supporting Cusick should he jump in this race definitely raised his chances, although he probably already was in the number 2 position. Cusick represents the 63rd Assembly District [map]. While Democrats are two seats away from taking control of the State Senate, they already hold a staggering 106-42 advantage in the Assembly, so he avoids the problems Diane Savino would face. Prior to winning his Assembly seat he served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer which may prove to be a valuable connection, especially for fund raising efforts. DeBlasio was given instant credibility because of his ties to Sen. Clinton and the impact that would have on his fund raising abilities, so that would be somewhat similar for Cusick. With Schumer's success with the DSCC, one has to imagine that he can easily plant a suggestion with the decision makers at the DCCC.

03 Stephen Harrison: As I stated before for Stephen Harrison to get a second go at Rep. Vito Fossella, I think his best bets are an early announcement and vigorous fund raising ahead of the craziness that will be the '08 campaign season. Early money and lots of it may be the one thing that could keep other candidates from having a go at this race. His second option is organizing a grassroots volunteer base such as Rep. McNerney put together in his race in '06 beating out a DCCC endorsed candidate in the primary and eventually taking out Rep. Pombo. Both are going to take some time.

04 Councilman McMahon: All indications point to him preparing for a run at the Borough Presidency in 2009. I only see him entering should Savino and Cusick decide not to and with promises of support and party resources. UPDATE McMahon has indicated he is potentially interested in running for the late Assemblyman John Lavelle's seat. If he is considering moving up in the political world and not hanging onto his Council seat until he can run for BP, speculation potentially arises now that he could be considering the Congressional race. Should he run and win the Assembly seat, I would find it hard to imagine him a year later then running for Congress. Consider his momentum changing though and now on the rise.

In doing some research I came across an old Politicker post from May 2005 with some relevant findings. They obtained a "poll performed for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee of Vito Fossella's congressional district."

[T]he DCCC is clearly hoping a serious candidate -- the three they tested were McMahon, Diane Savino, and Mike Cusick -- will jump in to the race.

Not much has changed, and I don't foresee the DCCC straying far from their hopes in 2005, for 2008.

Candidate Speculation; Cusick

Apparently Rep. Anthony Weiner is trying to weild some political muscle and has indicated his hopeful candidate to take on Rep. Fossella in 2008 is Assemblyman Cusick. Via the SI Advance polit:bureau blog;

"It would be great to have Mike fighting for us in Congress instead of Vito Fossella," Weiner told the crowd, which included Cusick.

Though the two are old pals, having worked together under U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Cusick still appreciated the sentiment, even if he isn't thinking about 2008 right now.

Back in September Rep. Weiner stepped up his role in helping Harrison attempt win this seat. The analysis then is just as apt for the above;

This is very exciting news for two potential reasons. First of all it is always nice to have the fund raising power of a Senator behind an event. But second, and possibly more telling is Rep. Anthony Weiner's attendance. With the primary battle for NY-11 over, and his candidate Yvette Clarke getting the nod, Rep. Weiner who has his sights on the mayoral race is going to do what he can to show off his bench building power. Now with NY-13 as the only legitimately contested congressional race do we see Weiner's organizing and campaigning abilities turned towards helping this race, and maybe others, to shore himself up as the front runner to succeed Bloomberg? [September 14, 2006]

With that let's update our candidate speculation list, now with colorful indicator arrows and links to speculation coverage:

	no movement
	positive movement (towards candidacy)
	downgraded movement (towards candidacy)
	Stephen Harrison
	Assemblyman Cusick
	State Senator Savino
	Assemblywoman Hyer-Spencer
	Council member McMahon

UPDATE
Just doing some formating changes. Blogger doesn't seem to like non breaking spaces after those images.