Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: cash on hand

Cash on Hand is the actual cash a candidate has in the bank that they can spend today if needed. This is probably a better metric to look at compared to total contributions. While Fossella is likely to bring in over $1 million dollars the question for this cycle is how much will he actually have to spend against his Democratic opponent?



Fossella has done well raising cash, even though it is noticably lower than in the past. However he is blowing through that cash faster than he probably ever has. This cycle he has raised $850,000 yet he has already spent $600,000 of that. That is simply astounding given he is not actively campaigning.

At the end of his 2002 election he had one of the highest cash on hand totals in the past four elections. We see he spent nearly all of it holding onto his seat and started off with very little in 2003. After that he steadily raising his cash on hand total for four years straight even while having two competitive elections during that time period; Barbaro in 2004 and Harrison in 2006. After the 2006 election he had almost no money left at all, and actually carried more debt than cash at that point. Even though 2004 and 2006 had his most competitive races he started each of those with an overwhelming cash on hand advantage that meant his opponents would probably never be able to catch him. That is not this case this cycle. Due to his struggle against Harrison in 2006 he was forced to spend all of his money and now trails Domenic Recchia in cash on hand.

If you take out the fourth quarter from 2007 he actually has been bleeding money each quarter this cycle instead of saving. His cash on hand from Q2 to Q3 in 2007 went down. Again his cash on hand from Q4 to Q1 of 2008 went down. Since 2002 he has never started a cycle with this little money and since 2002 he has never gone into an election year with this little money available. In his last election he had twice the cash that he does now.

If you notice the trends in 2006 as Harrison's campaign became a stronger opponent for Fossella his cash on hand fell each quarter going into the election. We can expect an even harder fight this year and should see his cash falling, if not between Q1 and Q2 you should expect to see it fall going into September from Q2 to Q3. I can't believe that Fossella wanted to associated himself with Dick Cheney but with numbers and trends like this he had little options left to save himself;

via the NY Times;

“Republicans in New York are in free fall, and Cheney’s visit to New York just proves Vito Fossella’s campaign is flagging,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. “Rather than bring home necessary resources to meet the needs of his district, Vito Fossella is embracing Dick Cheney and his Big Oil money to resurrect his failing campaign.”

Cheney's fund raiser should really boost Fossella's next filing. If with all of that money Recchia and/or Harrison are still able to stay ahead of Fossella in cash on hand expect to see this race get bumped up in rankings by the various firms.

Fossella is vulnerable. Humorously he is putting himself in that position because of his inability to manage and spend money, not quite as fiscally conservative as he would have you believe.

see also:
Part I: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: fund raising
Part II: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: campaign expenditures