48 hour notice updates

Earlier this week we had fund raising numbers from October 15 through 28;

McMahon (D): $105,347.87
Straniere (R): $15,600

The numbers since then through October 31 are;

McMahon (D): $49,100
Straniere (R): $1,000

TOTALS:
McMahon: $154,447
Straniere: $16,600

Mike McMahon is closing out this election with great fundraising numbers, while Straniere is still struggling to bring in enough to cover final campaign costs like office rent, staff salaries and supplies.

McMahon's 3Q press release

via the campaign;

McMahon Surpasses $1 Million Mark in Only Five Months – Raises Commanding $331,335 in Past Six Weeks For 13th Congressional District Race
October 16, 2008 – Congressional candidate Michael McMahon today announced that he raised a remarkable $331,335 in just the last six weeks of his campaign for the 13th Congressional District. The latest filing, from August 21st to September 30th, brings McMahon’s total fundraising past the $1 million mark to $1,042,980 in just five months since the start of the campaign, leaving him with $482,984 on hand.

By comparison, McMahon’s Republican opponent Robert Straniere raised $71,377.50 this period, bringing his total to $86,346.00 for the entire campaign, leaving him with only $1,918.39 on hand. Independent candidate Carmine Morano has raised $6,450, and ended the period $41,000 in debt. Conservative candidate Tim Cochrane’s filing has not yet been posted.

“For the past seven years, Mike McMahon has been a strong voice on the City Council for change and results in his district. This unbelievable outpouring of support shows that district residents now want Mike to bring that record of results to Congress. With the continued support of the district, Mike will bring the fight for smart economic policies, middle class tax relief, increased transportation funding, and improved health care all the way to Washington,” said McMahon spokesperson Erin Monju.

McMahon remains in a strong position going into the general election, with national observers rating the race “likely Democrat” across the board.

Today’s filing is the latest in a series of positive developments for McMahon, including endorsements from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Staten Island Borough President James Molinaro, endorsements from the city’s law enforcement unions the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association, Detectives Endowment Association, Captains Endowment Association, Lieutenants Benevolent Association, Sergeants Benevolent Association, and the New York State Court Officers Association and New York State Supreme Court Officers Association, as well as the Uniformed Sanitationmen's Association Local 831, and Amalgamated Transit Union Local 726.

McMahon also received key support in the primary and going into the general, including primary endorsements from the Staten Island Advance, New York Times, Brooklyn Paper and Courier Life, endorsements from elected leaders including Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senator Charles Schumer, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, former Mayor Ed Koch, and members of the New York City Congressional Delegation, and critical labor support from the New York State AFL–CIO, the United Federation of Teachers, 1199 SEIU Healthcare East, UFCW, UFA, UFOA and RWDSU.

Upon entering the race, McMahon also earned a spot on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's vaunted “Red to Blue” program, promising financial, communications and strategic support from the national party.

The General Election will be held on November 4th.

A preview of 3Q fundraising numbers

In anticipation of third quarter FEC filings I took a look at 48 Hour Contribution Notices to see how the two campaigns are comparing. FEC rules state that campaigns must report any contribution over $1,000 when that contribution comes within 20 days of an election. Here is what the two campaigns have filed so far;

Bob Straniere: $35,300
Mike McMahon: $48,000

This brings Bob's cumulative total to $50,000 in donations, without seeing his smaller donations. This still puts him only about $700,000 behind McMahon.

WNYC on McMahon's money

WNYC does a short piece on Mike McMahon's money with a great ending that points out McMahon and Harrison both have far more money than either Republican candidate. Listen;

Vito Fossella still has loyal donors

While all the excitement and movement is going to come from someone other than Vito Fossella from now on, he still has to file FEC reports and intriguingly has crazy stories following. Despite the hypocrisy there are people still willing to throw money at Vito Fossella to promote his unique brand of "family values." I already covered that he has actually increased his cash on hand over the past quarter despite not running for re-election, but more curious is a closer look at the date and quantity of those contributions.

Vito Fossella was arrested on the morning of May 1, one month into the second quarter. It now appears that he actively continued to raise money and had targeted fundraisers on May 13 and May 27. On May 13 he raised $22,200 from 11 donors. 7 of those 11 made the maximum contribution they could of $2,300 for either the primary or general election. One zealous couple, Herbert and Jeanne Seigel, actually both maxed out $2,300 each for both the primary and the general election. This is thirteen days after his arrest was made public and a full week after he admitted to having an affair and another child he kept secret from his own family.

That alone should raise a few questions, probably more so for his donors who have questionable ethics, however it gets worse. Six days following this large fundraising effort, on May 19, Vito Fossella announced he would not seek re-election. Then eight days following that announcement, on May 27 he had a second large coordinated fundraising effort where he brought in $16,600 with two donors maxing out their contribution for the primary that they knew would never be happening.

The final numbers are;
$41,650 since his arrest
$38,900 of that since his admitted adultery
$16,700 of that since he declared he would not run for re-election

McMahon's $500K quarter?

Rumors are circulating that Mike McMahon may report anywhere from $400- $500,000 for his first quarter, really his first month. When I heard $400,000 I thought that number was exceptionally high but recent reports are claiming even more. If true here is some perspective on how that rate of fund raising matches up for Democratic challengers across the country;

John Adler (NJ-03) $720K
Dan Seals (IL-08) $635k
Dina Titus (NV-03) $570K
Linda Stender (NJ-07) <$500K
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) $475K
Dan Maffei (NY-25) ~$470k
Michael Skelly (TX-07) $412K, added
Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) $400K

McMahon would fall in line as the fourth or fifth most prolific fundraiser (so far) for a Democratic challenger this past quarter. Dina Titus has raised her $570K in just two months, after entering the race late. Everyone else on this list raised their totals over three full months. McMahon by comparison will have been raising money for roughly one month.

Question: How much if any of McMahon's money is for the primary vs. the general?

thanks to Swing State Project's fund raising round ups for making this convenient.

update: I am adding new candidates as their numbers are released.

End of the quarter fund raising

Tonight at midnight is the end of the second quarter for fund raising. The results of these FEC filings will be quite telling heading into the primary. If you have a candidate you support send them some money, any amount helps and total number of donors is almost as critical as dollars raised;

Steve Harrison
Mike McMahon

Here is Steve's final email ask;

There are 6 hours left in this quarter and we need you to make a contribution of any amount.

Enough is enough. We must stand up and Get America Working Again together.

When I am your Congressman, I will not fund another bill for Iraq unless it's for one thing and one thing only - to bring our brave men and women back home.

Will you help me bring our troops back home?

When I am your Congressman, I will advocate for single-payer healthcare.

Will you help me demand healthcare for all Americans?

When I am your Congressman, I will strongly support labor rights and union rights.

Will you stand alongside the men and women of labor?

When I am your Congressman, I will bring back to our district much needed money to improve transportation and traffic - not for studies - but to truly increase our standard of living.

Enough is enough. My primary opponent has the machine but zero positions on the issues.

You know exactly where I stand but to compete against an expensive machine with bankrupt values, I'm depending on you for a contribution of $100, $50, $25, or any amount you can give - every dollar counts.

Will you Get America Working Again?

It's time to get our district back on track. It's time to get our country back on track. I'm counting on you.

We have less than 6 hours left. Let's finish this quarter strong.

note: if you have an email ask for McMahon's campaign pass it along and I will post it.

McMahon raising funds and possibly eye brows

Interesting;

A Washington source told the Advance last night that McMahon had already raised around $400,000 for the campaign.

If this is true McMahon is one of the most prolific Congressional fundraisers considering he has been in the race for only a month at this point. Fossella struggled to bring in $200,000 per quarter (three months) as an incumbent, so use that as your benchmark. I am going to say that he might have quite a war chest already but $400,000 seems incredibly high. One the other hand if this is remotely close to being accurate it has to scare any Republicans looking at jumping into the race now, which may be the real reason to release a slightly inflated number. Interesting.

Fossella's arrest leads to fund raising for Recchia too

via Liz Benjamin;

Meanwhile, Councilman Domenic Recchia, who has yet to formally declare his candidacy for Fossella's seat but has been raising money for a likely run, didn't want to comment on his likely opponent's troubles, but did tell DN City Hall Bureau Chief Kirsten Danis that he has seen an uptick in fundraising since the Staten Island congressman's arrest last week.

"In the last few days, it’s picked up,” said Recchia, who declined to say if he believed the surge was related to Fossella’s DWI bust. “I’m just doing a good job. People are listening and hearing our message.”

Fossella's arrest leads to fundraising for Harrison

Robert over at the Albany Project has highlights Vito Fossella's arrest and is calling for donors to give to Steve Harrison via his actblue page;

Today's ActBlue page of the day: NY-13 Democratic candidate Stephen Harrison. If you can, give Harrison $5. That's one dollar for each day Vito Fossella might serve in jail as a result of blowing a 0.17.

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: cash on hand

Cash on Hand is the actual cash a candidate has in the bank that they can spend today if needed. This is probably a better metric to look at compared to total contributions. While Fossella is likely to bring in over $1 million dollars the question for this cycle is how much will he actually have to spend against his Democratic opponent?



Fossella has done well raising cash, even though it is noticably lower than in the past. However he is blowing through that cash faster than he probably ever has. This cycle he has raised $850,000 yet he has already spent $600,000 of that. That is simply astounding given he is not actively campaigning.

At the end of his 2002 election he had one of the highest cash on hand totals in the past four elections. We see he spent nearly all of it holding onto his seat and started off with very little in 2003. After that he steadily raising his cash on hand total for four years straight even while having two competitive elections during that time period; Barbaro in 2004 and Harrison in 2006. After the 2006 election he had almost no money left at all, and actually carried more debt than cash at that point. Even though 2004 and 2006 had his most competitive races he started each of those with an overwhelming cash on hand advantage that meant his opponents would probably never be able to catch him. That is not this case this cycle. Due to his struggle against Harrison in 2006 he was forced to spend all of his money and now trails Domenic Recchia in cash on hand.

If you take out the fourth quarter from 2007 he actually has been bleeding money each quarter this cycle instead of saving. His cash on hand from Q2 to Q3 in 2007 went down. Again his cash on hand from Q4 to Q1 of 2008 went down. Since 2002 he has never started a cycle with this little money and since 2002 he has never gone into an election year with this little money available. In his last election he had twice the cash that he does now.

If you notice the trends in 2006 as Harrison's campaign became a stronger opponent for Fossella his cash on hand fell each quarter going into the election. We can expect an even harder fight this year and should see his cash falling, if not between Q1 and Q2 you should expect to see it fall going into September from Q2 to Q3. I can't believe that Fossella wanted to associated himself with Dick Cheney but with numbers and trends like this he had little options left to save himself;

via the NY Times;

“Republicans in New York are in free fall, and Cheney’s visit to New York just proves Vito Fossella’s campaign is flagging,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. “Rather than bring home necessary resources to meet the needs of his district, Vito Fossella is embracing Dick Cheney and his Big Oil money to resurrect his failing campaign.”

Cheney's fund raiser should really boost Fossella's next filing. If with all of that money Recchia and/or Harrison are still able to stay ahead of Fossella in cash on hand expect to see this race get bumped up in rankings by the various firms.

Fossella is vulnerable. Humorously he is putting himself in that position because of his inability to manage and spend money, not quite as fiscally conservative as he would have you believe.

see also:
Part I: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: fund raising
Part II: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: campaign expenditures

Even more coverage of the Fossella and Cheney fund raiser

* Cheney stumps for Vito — yet he still leads!, The Brooklyn Paper;

The widely unpopular veep endorsed Fossella (R–Bay Ridge) at an Upper East Side fete on April 21, but opponents were more than pleased that Fossella had called in a man described by his critics as a “Prince of Darkness” to fill the coffers.

“Who is Vito Fossella going to be beholden to if he is elected?” Democratic candidate Steve Harrison asked a crowd of protestors outside the 71st Street home of billionaire industrialist David Koch, who hosted the fundraiser. “It will be Dick Cheney.

“These are not people from whom you [should] accept campaign contributions — these are the people to whom you give campaign contributions back when you find out who they are,” added Harrison, who got 43 percent of the vote against the cash-rich Fossella in 2006.

see also:

* Steve Harrison on Fossella and Cheney fundraiser

* More coverage of Dick Cheney and Vito Fossella fundraiser

Sunday House Party for Harrison

Sun., Apr. 27, 2008
Hosts: David Michaelson and Joy Romanski
Time: 3-6:00 pm
Phone: 718-624-8384
Location: 50 Willow Street #1, Brooklyn Heights [Google Maps]

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: campaign expenditures

I previously wrote about Fossella's contributions per quarter and trends that show that he brought in significantly less funds in 2007 than he had in 2005 and that in election years he tends to bring in less. This suggests this could be one of his lowest fund raising cycles. Now we take a look at this expenditures.



The first trend to notice is that during election years (red) Fossella spends much more money than he does is on the non-election years (orange). This is typical of all campaigns. I am pointing it out though because you need to look ahead and see how this is going to hurt his campaign. He nearly doubles his expenditure rate in election years, which we are in now. So we should expect to see his expenditures drastically increasing and in fact we have already seen this happening in 2007. This cycle he has had the highest expenditure rate in the second, third and fourth quarter in a non election year.

Fossella's expenditures for the first quarter are already over $150,000 and we should expect that to only go up. This becomes problematic for him considering last quarter he spent more money than he raised. If this continues his cash on hand will actually start to quickly drop, as it did in the first quarter. We saw this happen in 2006 and is not a rare event. In 2006 his expenditures outpaced his contributions, the difference being then he was sitting on $600,000 cash compared to his current level of $249,000. His current fund raising drought and spending problem leads to him being forced to ask Dick Cheney to financially bail him out. Oh and the NRCC.

What is curious about Fossella's recent spending habits is that none of this is being spent on any real campaigning costs. He is not actively running ads. He is not actively canvassing or doing literature drops. He has raised $850,000, yet only has $249,000 of that left. So how is he burning through $600,000 in non campaign costs? What does he have to show for it, I am not sure. I am certainly happy that he is doing it and will make it easier to take him on this fall if he continues to display this type of 'fiscal conservatism'. The question for his donors to then ask is how does he afford to actually campaign when the race really gets under way and legitimate expenses start taking off.

So he is having trouble keeping up with his past fund raising levels. Now he is having trouble cutting his massive spending habits. Fossella is vulnerable and most of it is due to his own failures.

More coverage of Dick Cheney and Vito Fossella fundraiser

* The Brooklyn Paper; Dick Loves Vito, with podcast!

* Daily Politics covers the Cheney visit, and by cover they give it a short sentence buried down the page of updates;

VP Dick Cheney is in town today to attend a fundraiser for Rep. Vito Fossella.

* The NYTimes covers it, as we mentioned last night;

Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to attend a fund-raising luncheon on Monday in Manhattan on behalf of United States Representative Vito J. Fossella Jr., who is running for a sixth full term. Mr. Cheney’s visit puts a spotlight on a race that Democrats believe they can contest even though Mr. Fossella is an incumbent from the strongly Republican 13th Congressional District.

* Joshing Politics;

Why on Earth would Dick hang around a liberal town like ours for any longer than necessary? Well, its to raise money on the bi-partisanly (sp?) rich Upper East Side for the anti-troop, anti-Staten Island Republican Congressman Vito Fossella that supposedly represents the borough.

NYTimes covers Fossella and Cheney fundraiser

via the NYTimes;

The fund-raiser for Mr. Fossella will be at the Upper East Side home of David H. Koch, the billionaire executive vice president of Koch Industries, a company with major oil and gas holdings.

Democrats from Staten Island to Washington said that Mr. Cheney’s support signaled that the Bush administration had to come to Mr. Fossella’s aid.

“Republicans in New York are in free fall, and Cheney’s visit to New York just proves Vito Fossella’s campaign is flagging,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. “Rather than bring home necessary resources to meet the needs of his district, Vito Fossella is embracing Dick Cheney and his Big Oil money to resurrect his failing campaign.”

Remember today's protest at 10am.

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: fund raising

I have broken down Vito Fossella's contributions, expenditures and cash on hand per quarter since 2002 to get an idea of how things are shaping up for his campaign this cycle. First contributions per quarter;



His campaign previously claimed;

“The committee raises between $1.2 and $1.8 million every election cycle and we are on track to reach our goals this cycle as well,” said Kaye.

I already covered why this is not truthful with $1.5 million being the most he raised outside of his '97 special election. The fun part though now is that with just two and a half quarters left to raise money Fossella will need to pull in $150,000 per quarter just to reach $1.2 million. Fossella barely pulled this in in the last quarter. Looking back at election years he hasn't passed $200,000 in a quarter in the past two cycles (during election years) so it seems likely that he will fall short of $1.3 million on a very optimistic and favorable extrapolation. In 2006 his numbers actually went down during the 2 and 3 quarters leading up to the election. This will get much more interesting when we look at expenditures.

The next trend to notice is off election year (odd years) totals. Fossella managed to bring in significantly more money in 2005 than he has been able to do in 2007. His fund raising is on the decline, on top of the debt that strapped his campaign for the past six quarters.

While Fossella's campaign will try to spin their fund raising and set false expectations all you have to do it take a look at the real numbers and see there a lot of signs that his contributions are heading in the wrong direction.

Next: Expenditures

Vito Fossella trails Recchia in cash on hand

Tom is reporting first quarter FEC numbers that show Vito Fossella now far behind Recchia in available cash. Based on his numbers here is how the first quarter results look compared to where we were back at the end of December 2007 (last quarter numbers in parenthesis);

Q1
Fossella (R): $148,641 ($304,453)
Harrison (D): $43,878 ($69,230)
Recchia (D): $129,690 ($220,770)

COH
Fossella: $248,496 ($250,501)
Harrison: $91,131 ($83,116)
Recchia: $325,175 ($206,451)

This is huge if correct. Not only is Recchia ahead by $75,000 it appears that Vito Fossella not only already spent all the money he raised from January to March but in fact has less money now than he did at the end of December. He is going backwards in terms of fundraising. While Fossella will have raised $850,000 to date, he has spent $600,000 of that and isn't even campaigning yet. A question I will be curious to see an answer to is whether or not Fossella was able to finally get completely out of the massive debt he incurred in order to beat Harrison on 2006.

see: Fossella in Financial Trouble and Denial, part III

Q1 Fundraising results

Cash raised from Jan-Mar 2008. via Tom;

Fossella: $148,641
Harrison: $43,878
Recchia: $129,690

Vito Fossella's campaign shows more signs of vulnerability

Following the announcement that Fossella's own party thinks he is vulnerable and will throw money at his race comes this news;

Dick Cheney will be a featured guest at an April 21 fund-raising lunch for Vito Fossella, the city’s only Republican congressman, a sign that the national Republican Party is putting in a major effort to hold onto the seat.

If you didn't think Fossella was scared or at the very least taking his re-election very serious given the challengers he is facing, he is bringing Dick Cheney in for a fund raiser. Dick Cheney has an approval rating around 22%, worse than the President who many Republicans will not campaign with in their districts. Now Fossella will continue to tell people he is an "independent" as a way to create separation between himself and the President but that description is now moot given he is stooping to bring someone nearly 4/5 of the country despises in to help shore up his failing fund raising efforts. Fossella is not bringing Cheney to town for fun, Fossella is vulnerable.

update: This isn't the first time Dick Cheney has helped Vito Fossella