Fossella's eminent demise

It is late. It has only been a week since the arrest but it feels like soo much longer. There are lots of questions swirling around and another press conference planned but not announced. Leave it to Vito to not even want to talk about his own planned press conference.

What is going to happen? By now I think it is almost a foregone conclusion that Vito Fossella and Laura Fay have some relationship beyond what his campaign is telling us and to make matters worse there is a child involved. While we are running around looking for the next plot twist we still have no idea what his wife and family knew and that seems to be the looming variable in a lot of this. At his upcoming press conference here is what I expect we will hear or find out shortly after;

1. He has had an extra martial affair but that has ended
2. He has a child as a result of this relationship
3. He is not going to resign, but he will not run for his seat again this fall

I don't care to get into 1 or 2 now, but let's look at 3. Fossella most likely will not resign because his party is so corrupt they don't do that. Sen. Craig has been arrested propositioning sex in a men's public restroom and is still serving in the Senate. Sen. Vitter has admitted to having relationships with a prostitute and he is going strong and still serving in the Senate. If those don't bring down Republicans nothing Fossella says can so why resign? Second if he resigns he allows Gov. Paterson to set up a special election to fill this seat. Democrats have shown they are able to play in the two major special House elections this year winning both very conservative districts. The DCCC could come in and drop a million dollars easily to win this seat and Republicans would never get it back. The pressure has to be to great on Fossella to not resign that I can not see him doing so. That said I would put the odds at 80% that he will announce he is not seeking re-election. His fund raising has been poor by his own standards before this all started. Now his campaign is paying expensive crisis management consultants to end this tail spin he is in. If he stays in he won't be able to bring Cheney to town often enough to have the money he needs.

The end of Fossella's career seems near and brought on by his own doing.