Fossella v. Vittaliano: 1997 Special Election analysis

In some reading recently I came across an op-ed piece from the 1997 special election when Vito Fossella first won this Congressional seat. The piece was amazing in its foreshadowing the Congressional changes in 2006 and its analysis of where the Republican party was heading. Via FairVote.org;

No matter what happens this Tuesday, it may well be that Republicans in the northeast are due for more losses in upcoming federal elections until it becomes clear that one party has firm control of the U.S. House. Socially moderate Republicans like George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Weld and Christie Whitman may continue to do well in state elections, but the changing nature of their party -- as represented by Republican congressional leaders from the south like Gingrich, Trent Lott, Dick Armey and Tom DeLay -- will probably keep them at home rather than in Washington.

National Republicans may be willing to exchange their remaining seats in the northeast for more seats in the bigger and faster-growing south and west. But that may further move the party to the right, which could have significant repercussions in "swing" areas in the midwest and Pacific Coast. Newt Gingrich's decision to put James Greenwood in the congressional leadership and the RNC's investment in New York this fall may indicate that they recognize what is at stake. It is now up to Staten Island voters to decide whether northeastern Republicans will go the way of the Dixiecrat and the dinosaur.

In 2006, the Republicans lost the Northeast in large numbers. They lost House seats in New Hampshire (2) and Connecticut (3) and now only control one House seat, Shays (R-CT), in all of Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. Further they lost three seats in upstate New York and potentially will lose three more upstate. The Republican Party abandoned the Northeast long ago and its long term impact is slowly being realized. The voters are leaving the party they once knew and rediscovering Democrats.