Republicans facing hard times in New York

via NY Times;

In some cases, potential candidates see a tough climate for Republicans, largely because of a troubled economy and a protracted war, according to some Republicans.

snip

Republicans have had difficulty recruiting top-tier candidates in several other states, including Ohio and Indiana. But the problems have been especially pronounced in New York, a heavily Democratic state where Democrats picked up three Republican-held seats in 2006. Republicans are in danger of suffering more losses this year, analysts say.

Emphasis in that quote my own. Stay tuned for Tom Wrobleski to explain to use how this is bad news for Democrats. In the mean time for the rest of us living in reality it is fun to watch the Republican brand fall apart in New York.

And then there were five

Rep. James Walsh, R-NY-25 has announced he will forgo seeking a hard re-election battle and retire at the end of his term. This now brings the total number of Republican Congressional members from New York state to five; Rep. King, McHugh, Reynolds, Kuhl, and Fossella. Out of 29 Congressional seats 23 are controlled by Democrats (Walsh's has no incumbent), all but two practically safe from any challenge. Walsh's district is even more Democratic leaning than Fossella's at a PVI D+3 meaning this is a likely pick up for Dan Maffei the 2006 challenger, giving Democrats 24 of 29 seats easily. In 2006 Democrats picked up three seats with Rep. Hall, Gilibrand and Arcuri. Republicans could not mount a serious candidate against either Spitzer or Clinton statewide. It is a good trend that does not bode well for Fossella. New York State is trending blue and proving to be a difficult place to be a Republican. New Yorkers just are not buying their policies and realizing substantively they have little in common with them.

LTE: Discontent with the administration

In a recent 'Letter to the Editor' (LTE) in the SI Advance a writer comments on his discontent with the Bush administration and the rest of the Government in DC;

Wake up, America. Speak out and see what is going on in your government while you are trying to just survive in America today. And I would also ask at what point would a Republican feel ashamed of and terrified by this administration for its outright lies, the outing of a covert agent, extraordinary renditioning, holding people in Guantanamo without bringing charges after four years, leaving them in limbo, illegal surveillance and wiretap, destroying the American economy and trashing the Constitution?

The adversity to not just the President but Fossella's party remains high. How the Democrats will speak to these constituents is what will make or break their campaign.

Alan Greenspan on Republican wasteful practices

via the Washington Post;

Greenspan accuses the Republicans who presided over the party's majority in the House until last year of being too eager to tolerate excessive federal spending in exchange for political opportunity.

snip

The large, anticipated federal budget surpluses that were the basis for Bush's initial $1.35 trillion tax cut "were gone six to nine months after George W. Bush took office."

Powerful words from the top Republican economist for decades, revered by many in both parties. Surely the criticisms he levels at the gluttony of the Republicans like Fossella when they were in power resonates more, when Fossella himself praises the man for his knowledge and demeanor. Vito Fossella on Alan Greenspan;

He is among the most respected economic strategists of our time and has the vision and foresight to lead America into the 21st century. His voice is respected in all corners of the globe and his judicious approach to managing economic matters has eased worries on Wall Street and in international markets.

Fossella v. Vittaliano: 1997 Special Election analysis

In some reading recently I came across an op-ed piece from the 1997 special election when Vito Fossella first won this Congressional seat. The piece was amazing in its foreshadowing the Congressional changes in 2006 and its analysis of where the Republican party was heading. Via FairVote.org;

No matter what happens this Tuesday, it may well be that Republicans in the northeast are due for more losses in upcoming federal elections until it becomes clear that one party has firm control of the U.S. House. Socially moderate Republicans like George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Weld and Christie Whitman may continue to do well in state elections, but the changing nature of their party -- as represented by Republican congressional leaders from the south like Gingrich, Trent Lott, Dick Armey and Tom DeLay -- will probably keep them at home rather than in Washington.

National Republicans may be willing to exchange their remaining seats in the northeast for more seats in the bigger and faster-growing south and west. But that may further move the party to the right, which could have significant repercussions in "swing" areas in the midwest and Pacific Coast. Newt Gingrich's decision to put James Greenwood in the congressional leadership and the RNC's investment in New York this fall may indicate that they recognize what is at stake. It is now up to Staten Island voters to decide whether northeastern Republicans will go the way of the Dixiecrat and the dinosaur.

In 2006, the Republicans lost the Northeast in large numbers. They lost House seats in New Hampshire (2) and Connecticut (3) and now only control one House seat, Shays (R-CT), in all of Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. Further they lost three seats in upstate New York and potentially will lose three more upstate. The Republican Party abandoned the Northeast long ago and its long term impact is slowly being realized. The voters are leaving the party they once knew and rediscovering Democrats.

Fossella staunchly supports Bush

The withdraw of troops from Iraq is not a partisan issue. The belief that we should bring our troops home and commend them for their sacrifice is not a partisan issue. However the desire to continue to stay embedded in Iraq and to continue to put our troops at risk is clearly a Rep. Vito Fossella and Bush priority.

Two leading Republican senators say they will demand President Bush offer a plan to start reducing U.S. forces in Iraq by the end of the year.

snip

"Our amendment mandates that the administration immediately initiate planning for post-September contingencies, including a drawdown or redeployment of forces," Lugar's statement says. "It requires those plans to be presented to Congress by October 16 of this year, and it states that the plans should be designed to be executable beginning not later than December 31." [via CNN]

You can be a Republican and oppose Rep. Vito Fossella's absolute failure to support our troops.

Republican defections in the district

Recently Rose Margarella, the recent Republican nominee for the late Mr. Lavelle's North Shore Assembly seat, switched party affiliation to become a registered Democrat. What exactly does this mean for her former party? Via the SI Advance blog;

Rose Margarella, a two-time Republican candidate for Staten Island's North Shore assembly seat, has converted to the Democratic Party.
Staten Island Advance photoRose Margarella is switching political parties.

snip

Ms. Margarella said the switch would allow her to be more involved with community issues on the heavily Democratic North Shore.

As stated, Rose was a two time party nominee for the Republicans. The North Shore is not exactly a swing district and the Democratic party does not need to recruit Republicans to switch in order to run moderate candidates. Quite the opposite, there is wealth of community leaders and candidates at the Democratic party's availability, making the defection seeming not based on potential future elected service for Ms. Margarella. This may have been enticing had it happened in the South Shore, but it did not. This leaves me with the feeling that the Republican Party must have really alienated their two time nominee enough to make her give it all up and essentially make a public statement about the strength of her former party. Although she goes on to say she has no dissatisfactions with the Republican Party that comment is not hard to see through as a final nicety on her part.

Did the party refuse to offer legitimate support? Did they fail to meet promises they made to one of their nominees? It is hard to answer either, but it seems likely that they have given up playing offense and are content or worse stuck playing defense with the seats they have in a hope that they do not become as irrelevant as the Republican Party in the other boroughs. This is all the more reason that the Democratic Party needs to keep up its efforts in the South Shore and why I keep harping on the initiatives of Manny Innamorato's campaign to take the party message door to door in the South Shore. This congressional district is not won in Brooklyn and the North Shore, it is won in what formerly has been neglected or assumed Republican strong holds. The groundwork is being laid by the Innamorato's and the Mike Ryan's.

Republicans opposing Bush and Fossella's war in Iraq

via the AP;

The deaths brought to 99 the number of U.S. troops to die in Iraq this month, according to an Associated Press count. The toll for the past three months--329--made it the deadliest quarter for U.S. troops in Iraq since the war began in March 2003.

This is followed by a recently CQPolitics article, Sen.
Domenici Is Latest Republican to Step Away From Bush on Iraq

Sen. Pete V. Domenici on Thursday became the third prominent Republican within the past two weeks to call for a new strategy in Iraq, breaking publicly with President Bush on the eve of a renewed Senate debate over war policy.

"I am unwilling to continue our current strategy," Domenici, R-N.M., told his constituents during a speech in Albuquerque. The United States needs a strategy "that will move our troops out of combat operations and on the path to coming home," he said.

Rep. Vito Fossella of course has said nothing such and continues to
remain closely allied with President Bush on their Iraq strategy. As
more and more Republicans like Rep. Doolittle (R-CA) change their
views and speak out against our failed policy in Iraq, Fossella is
going to be one of the few strigent supporters left at Bush's side.
The question then for the voters of his district is whether you agree
with the overwhelming majority of this country that we are on the
wrong path in Iraq or whether you agree with Rep. Fossella that
President Bush is doing a 'heckava job' with our military and that we
should continue to stay the course.

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