Northeast once again target for Democratic pickups

CQPolitics.com is running a story Democrats Seek to Pick Up More Northeast House Seats in ‘08. They state that the success of the Democratic Party in the Northeast helped propel the party to majority status in the House and that the party still feels there are seats rip for the picking to continue their dominence of representing the interest of the more liberal residents.

Not content with the major gains they made in the Northeast in the 2006 campaign, Democratic strategists believe they can make further inroads in the region in next year’s House contests.

snip

Democratic strategists planning for 2008 contend, though, that they have not yet maxed out in the Northeast’s House contests.

Add to this the fact that the National Republican Congressional Committee, the organization that provides financial support to Republican incumbents and challengers is in serious trouble and practically broke, via CQPolitics GOP in Unusual Position: Behind in Money Chase;

Using data for Aug. 31 in the election cycle’s off-year as a snapshot, the figures show that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported $20.5 million more in cash on hand than the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which reported only $1.59 million in the bank.

Fossella v. Vittaliano: 1997 Special Election analysis

In some reading recently I came across an op-ed piece from the 1997 special election when Vito Fossella first won this Congressional seat. The piece was amazing in its foreshadowing the Congressional changes in 2006 and its analysis of where the Republican party was heading. Via FairVote.org;

No matter what happens this Tuesday, it may well be that Republicans in the northeast are due for more losses in upcoming federal elections until it becomes clear that one party has firm control of the U.S. House. Socially moderate Republicans like George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Weld and Christie Whitman may continue to do well in state elections, but the changing nature of their party -- as represented by Republican congressional leaders from the south like Gingrich, Trent Lott, Dick Armey and Tom DeLay -- will probably keep them at home rather than in Washington.

National Republicans may be willing to exchange their remaining seats in the northeast for more seats in the bigger and faster-growing south and west. But that may further move the party to the right, which could have significant repercussions in "swing" areas in the midwest and Pacific Coast. Newt Gingrich's decision to put James Greenwood in the congressional leadership and the RNC's investment in New York this fall may indicate that they recognize what is at stake. It is now up to Staten Island voters to decide whether northeastern Republicans will go the way of the Dixiecrat and the dinosaur.

In 2006, the Republicans lost the Northeast in large numbers. They lost House seats in New Hampshire (2) and Connecticut (3) and now only control one House seat, Shays (R-CT), in all of Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. Further they lost three seats in upstate New York and potentially will lose three more upstate. The Republican Party abandoned the Northeast long ago and its long term impact is slowly being realized. The voters are leaving the party they once knew and rediscovering Democrats.

Use it or lose it: NY State

In April 2006, I wrote about how a candidate for this congressional seat could get some quick easy funding by their elected Democratic counterparts throughout the state in otherwise safe seats, who do not need to drop hundreds of thousands of dollars into their re-election campaigns. From that post;

"In 2004 they (20 Democrats from NY) gave (Frank Barbaro) a combined $12,750. $7,000 of that coming from Rep. Rangel's PAC. If those 18 non-competitive seats put in $2,1000 during both the primary and general election, we will have $75,600."

Back in the fall of the 2006 elections, Chris Bowers of MyDD.com blogged about a proposal he entitled "Use it or lose it" in which he called for safe House Democrats to donate to Democratic challengers and the DCCC.

So bring those two together, and you get 'Use it or lose it: NY State.' As of December 2006, the following is a list of cash on hand for the now 23 Democratic congress members;

01 Bishop - $423,784
02 Israel - $1mil
04 McCarthy - $373,676
05 Ackerman - $839,419
06 Meeks - $68,614
07 Crowley - $683,096
08 Nadler - $669,254
09 Weiner - $279,482
10 Towns - $52,722
11 Clarke - $53,613 (debt $137k)*
12 Velazquez - $309,102
14 Maloney - $672,956
15 Rangel - $412,923 (debt $35k)
16 Serrano - $2,829
17 Engel - $42,413
18 Lowey - $809,000
19 Hall - $54,448 *
20 Gillibrand - $43,964 *
21 McNulty - $225,843
22 Hinchey - $78,347
24 Arcuri - $36,007 *
27 Higgins - $408,596
28 Slaughter - $272,361

* freshmen candidates

So here is the proposal for 2008:
1. All members with over $100k and not a freshman should promise to give a maximum PAC contribution to Hall, Gillibrand and Arucri. Clarke's seat will remain Democratic, and the purpose of this post is only focusing on flipping seats and retaining hard fought victories. Contributions should be made as primary donations in early 2008.

2. All members with over $100k and not a freshman should promise to give to each Democratic nominee challenger in New York, there will only be six. In 2004 these were; Massa (NY29), Maffei (NY25), Harrison (NY13), Mejias (NY03), Johnson (NY23) and Davis (NY26). Should Jack Davis run again, I would exclude him from this because he is a self financing candidate. Although should Jonathan Powers be the nominee he is definitely included. Since this will be a presidential election year I have ordered the races by PVI (Party Voter Index), since party turnout will be drastically impacted by the Presidential election;

1. NY25 D+3 (Maffei)
2. NY03 D+2 (Mejias)
3. NY13 D+1 (Harrison)
4. NY23 R+0 (Johnson)
5. NY26 R+3 (Davis)


note: NY29 is not listed for an unknown reason on Cook's 2008 Potentially Competitive House Chart.

Since New York primaries are so late, September, these candidates need this money as early in the process as possible. In the challenger races where there is only one candidate by April 2008, they should be considered the front runner and receive the donations outlined in step 2.

Right now there are 14 members with over 100k cash on hand. With the exception of Rep. Serrano (who always has fund raising issues) all of the remaining non freshman should have no problems reaching the 100k level before their 2008 races. Those 14 members could essentially start Hall, Gillibrand, Arcuri and the six challengers to Republican held seats with a minimum of nearly $30k seed money, while posing little impact to their cash on hand totals and re-election.