OH-05 vs. NY-13, is there anything to learn here?
Yesterday there was a special Congressional election in OH-05, northwest Ohio. The only reason I bring this up is the voting break down is very similar to NY-13. Both in 2006 and yesterday the Republican won the race 57-43%, which was the final here in 2006 between Fossella and Harrison.
OH-05 2006
Gillmor (R) - 56.85%
Weirauch (D) - 43.15%
OH-05 2007 (Dec 11)
Latta, Robert (R) - 56.87%
Weirauch, Robin (D) - 42.95%
NY-13 2006
Fossella (R) - 56.80%
Harrison (D) - 43.20%
The difference in the districts comes in the partisan make up of the voters. OH-05 has a PVI of R+10 whereas NY-13 has a PVI of D+.5. To put it another way take a look at the Bush v. Kerry totals in the two districts;
OH-05
Bush - 60.93%
Kerry - 38.53%
NY-13
Bush - 54.61%
Kerry - 44.50%
So a much more conservative and Republican leaning district in Ohio gave us as close of a Congressional race as we have here. Why?
I haven't had time to formulate any thoughts on this myself except to say that there appears to be unsatisfied Republican voters who are voting against the party message. The Republicans had two different candidates in 2006 and 2007 so it seems as though there is more of an issue of frustration at Bush and/or the party than at the candidate regardless of who it is. If true this would be the precursor for us in 2008. Keep Fossella connected to Bush.
Of course this probably all goes out the window if Giuliani is on the top of the ballot.
Labels: OH-05, Rep. Vito Fossella, Stephen Harrison
posted by me @ 7:31 PM
1 Comments:
The relationship of Ohio 5 can be compared to the Francine Busby races in southern CA. Kos has done a very good evaluation of the weakness in the Democratic campaign strategy in Ohio 5 that can be a great lesson for NY13! Basically, as you note, there are alot of disenchanted republicans especially with the Iraq war handling and Bush fiscal policies who want change and the Republican Brand sucks right now! In Ohio, the Democrat failed to advertise herself as a Democrat while offering to be the agent of change you need to take advantage of the good brand the Democrats now enjoy! She also failed to take head on the Iraq war issue that is number one in voters minds! Now nobody suggests that that district could have flipped but the race could have been much tighter. As you point out NY13 is already there, so if our candidate can lead on the war and fiscal issues offering proudly the Democratic Party alternative, than NY 13 can gain another six or seven points over 2006 and come into the democratic column!
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