Rothenberg Political Report: NY-13 Republican Favored

The Rothenberg Political Report came out with its political ratings today. They list Vito Fossella as "Republican Favored" and give this overall explanation of their rankings;

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party.

Thus they place this race as not a definite for Fossella, which should be expected. Two weeks before the election last cycle CQPolitics moved the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored, signaling the beginning of a downward slope for Fossella, thanks to Harrison's run for the seat;

Yet despite this successful track record, Fossella has felt the need to go vigorously on the offensive against an underfunded Democratic candidate, attorney Steve Harrison, an unusual tactic for an incumbent expecting a landslide.

With New York 13 hardly immune to the volatile political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

With recent FEC filings showing Fossella now trailing in money, probably the first time since '97 that this has happened, I would expect to start seeing some movement in these rankings. Harrison moved this from a safe seat to a seat in play given the right conditions. The race is now starting out as Republican Favored this year. If the vulnerabilities I am seeing are true expect to start seeing this seat slide to Likely Republican/Leans Republican and beyond.