Rothenberg keeps race as Dem Favored

Nothing new here. Rothenberg predicts another 25-30 Democratic house pick ups further expanding their majority.

Rothenberg keeps race as Dem Favored

The new Rothenberg updates are out and there is actually no news here. They are keeping this race as Dem Favored, the highest rating they give to a seat likely to flip. This is only one of three currently held Republican seats that Rothenberg lists as Dem Favored. Rothenberg does not list any Democratic held seats as Republican Favored.

Rothenberg upgrades race to Democrat Favored

The Rothenberg Political Report today has released their 2008 House Ratings and moved NY13 from toss-up/tilt Democrat to Democrat Favored. They have moved this race two positions from toss-up past Leans Democrat to Democrat Favored. This is a big shift again in our favor. Rothenbrg now joins Swing State Project, Cook Political Report and CQ Politics in moving this completely into a Democrat Favored or Leans Democrat position. You can see the ratings on the right side of this site.

Rothenberg joins the rest, upgrades race

The Rothenberg Political Report today upgraded this race from toss-up to toss-up/tilt Democrat. They still lag a bit behind the other analysts in moving this completely to at least a lean Democrat rating, but Swing State, Cook, CQ and now Rothenberg all gives the odds (even is slightly) to the Democratic nominee to pick up this seat.

SSP: Leans Dem
CQ: Dem Favored
Cook: Leans Dem
Rothenberg: toss-up/tilt Dem

update the right side bar list of ratings has been updated to reflect these changes

New analyst upgrade for NY-13

The Rothenberg Political Report has changed its ranking of this race and now lists it as a "pure toss-up." This is an upgrade from a month ago when they listed this seat as "Republican favored."

Rothenberg now joins several others in saying this race is anyone's to win, though currently trending Democratic;

Swing State Project, toss-up
Cook Political Report, toss-up
CQPolitics; no clear favorite

Rothenberg Political Report: NY-13 Republican Favored

The Rothenberg Political Report came out with its political ratings today. They list Vito Fossella as "Republican Favored" and give this overall explanation of their rankings;

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party.

Thus they place this race as not a definite for Fossella, which should be expected. Two weeks before the election last cycle CQPolitics moved the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored, signaling the beginning of a downward slope for Fossella, thanks to Harrison's run for the seat;

Yet despite this successful track record, Fossella has felt the need to go vigorously on the offensive against an underfunded Democratic candidate, attorney Steve Harrison, an unusual tactic for an incumbent expecting a landslide.

With New York 13 hardly immune to the volatile political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

With recent FEC filings showing Fossella now trailing in money, probably the first time since '97 that this has happened, I would expect to start seeing some movement in these rankings. Harrison moved this from a safe seat to a seat in play given the right conditions. The race is now starting out as Republican Favored this year. If the vulnerabilities I am seeing are true expect to start seeing this seat slide to Likely Republican/Leans Republican and beyond.