NY13 Blog; Retaking NY-13 from Rep. Vito Fossella

Following the corruption, ineffectiveness and hypocrisy of Rep. Vito Fossella.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Candidate Speculation, round II

It has been a while since I wrote a candidate speculation post. I started doing them earlier in 2007 to track speculation and hints that various candidates may be preparing to run for this seat. Keep that in mind when reviewing these ratings. This is not an indication on their chances to win the primary or general election, just indications that they will declare their candidacy. Below I show the candidate's campaigns with either positive movement, downgraded movement, or no movement. Since Harrison has already declared and this post speculates on potential candidacy I am listing him first with "no movement." I don't expect this to change unless there is an indication that he is changing his mind.

Steve Harrison
Harrison continues to pick up endorsements and crucial volunteers. His campaign is influenced the least based on what the other potential candidates decide to do.

Diane Savino
Savino has had recent comments that she is not concerned about entering a primary after supporting Recchia up until now.

Mike McMahon
He wrote a recent letter to the editor in the Advance on the hospital situation on Staten Island. Potentially a sign that he is increasing his name recognition and appearance.

Domenic Recchia
Recent news that Recchia was looking to drop out (despite not declaring) the day of Fossella arrest is damaging. On top of that continued conversation about McMahon or Savino hints that institutional support might shift to them. On a plus side Vito Lopez may want a Brooklyn candidate in the race and has clearly supported Recchia up until now.

Mike Cusick
McMahon and Savino are dominating the media attention of these three potentials. I only believe one of them will declare if at all, meaning it looks like Cusick is not interested.

I still find not path to Abbate being a top tier candidate should he jump in.

positive movement
downgraded movement
no movement

what do you think?
How do you see the trends going? What have you heard that I didn't cover?



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