New Candidate Speculation, Republican Party

Some candidate speculation via the NY Sun;

Republican leaders say two leading candidates to replace Powers are an acting state Supreme Court justice, Joseph Maltese, and a retired investment banker, Paul Atanasio.

Mr. Atanasio, who is active in the state Conservative Party, was a municipal bond manager at UBS before retiring several months ago. He was also a helicopter pilot in the Marine Corps.

If Atanasio enters the race this could move the Staten Island Conservative Party to end their hold out and endorse him. Prior to the recent events they wanted to endorse McMahon while the Brooklyn side of the party wanted to endorse Powers creating a stalemate.

Meanwhile Fossella has declared he really is done and will not run again
via the Advance;

"My plans for the future have not changed," Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) told the Advance during an exclusive interview in his Eltingville district office today. "I am not running for re-election."

Liz has a great round up of all the other usual suspects and tells us Lanza, Donovan Ignizio and Oddo are still out. Lisa Giovinazzo who was the front runner for three hours before Frank Powers' endorsement might still be interested and a new name has entered, former Assemblyman Matt Mirones. Mirones used to hold the AD-60 seat now held by Janele Hyer-Spencer. Certainly a more moderate seat spanning Staten Island and Brooklyn. He would probably be one of the stronger fifth tier (I forget what tier we are on honestly) candidates.

Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 22

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination. Latest updates are italicized and in green below. Two new Republican potential candidates have been added.

Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - Staten Island Republican Party candidate interviews
Tuesday, May 27 - Staten Island Conservative Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due
No date set for Staten Island Democratic candidate interviews

Potential Republican Candidates
State Senator Andrew Lanza

Lanza has the support of Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia, who might also be a candidate if Lanza declines.

He will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala

Fiala has support of members of the Independence Party.

He has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.

ADDED
Staten Island Republican Chairman John Friscia is quoted in the Daily News saying "I'm not going to say I'm interested in it, I'm not going to say I'm not interested in it."

Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne

Via the Advance; "Dr. Jamshad Wyne, the borough GOP's finance chair, holding a campaign fund-raiser last night and telling the Advance that he would run if state Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island) wasn't a candidate."

Wyne was expected to declare earlier this week.
update: downgraded to no movement

City Council Member James Oddo will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Despite that note Oddo rarely gets any press mentions and has an anger problem.

State Senator Marty Golden was mentioned by Craig Eaton, below. Golden brings little to the race, risks another Republican Senate seat. He has a better chance than Eaton though as little as that is.

Brooklyn Republican Party Chair, Craig Eaton dropped his own name as a potential candidate. He is now added to this list but with downgraded movement since no one other than he himself is dropping his name.

NOT RUNNING
District Attorney Dan Donovan

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.

Harrison is now reported to be in talks with the DCCC.

City Council Member Mike McMahon

Mike McMahon is rumored to have met with the Central Labor Council, an umbrella group for labor organizations in the city.

McMahon has previously said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate
update: downgraded to no movement

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.

NOT RUNNING
State Senator Diane Savino

Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 21

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination. Latest updates are italicized and in green below. Two new Republican potential candidates have been added.

Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - SI Republican Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due

Potential Republican Candidates
District Attorney Dan Donovan

“Dan would be the number one favorite with most people,” said Molinari, via NY1.

He has spoken to Rep. Boehner and other national Republican Congressional leaders. Will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days.

State Senator Andrew Lanza

Lanza appears to have the support of Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia.

He will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala
Fiala has support of members of the Independence Party.

He has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.

Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne is expected to declare today.

City Council Member James Oddo will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Despite that note Oddo rarely gets any press mentions and has an anger problem.

ADDED
State Senator Marty Golden was mentioned by Craig Eaton, below. Golden brings little to the race, risks another Republican Senate seat. He has a better chance than Eaton though as little as that is.

ADDED
Brooklyn Republican Party Chair, Craig Eaton dropped his own name as a potential candidate. He is now added to this list but with downgraded movement since no one other than he himself is dropping his name.

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.
Harrison is now reported to be in talks with the DCCC.

City Council Member Mike McMahon said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate

State Senator Diane Savino
"State Sen. Diane Savino, has indicated to party officials she likely won’t jump into the crowded field," via the NY Daily News.

She was absent in Tuesday's New York Times article where McMahon and Cusick were quoted as being interested in the race. This likely means she will only consider running if one of those two do not.
See: Potential Candidates: State Senator Diane Savino.

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.

Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 20

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination.

Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - Republican Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due

Potential Republican Candidates
District Attorney Dan Donovan has spoken to Rep. Boehner and other national Republican Congressional leaders. Will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days.

State Senator Andrew Lanza will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.

Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne is expected to declare today.

City Council Member James Oddo will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Despite that note Oddo rarely gets any press mentions and has an anger problem.

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.

City Council Member Mike McMahon said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate

State Senator Diane Savino was absent in today's New York Times article where McMahon and Cusick were quoted as being interested in the race. This likely means she will only consider running if one of those two do not.
See: Potential Candidates: State Senator Diane Savino.

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.

Candidate Speculation, round II

It has been a while since I wrote a candidate speculation post. I started doing them earlier in 2007 to track speculation and hints that various candidates may be preparing to run for this seat. Keep that in mind when reviewing these ratings. This is not an indication on their chances to win the primary or general election, just indications that they will declare their candidacy. Below I show the candidate's campaigns with either positive movement, downgraded movement, or no movement. Since Harrison has already declared and this post speculates on potential candidacy I am listing him first with "no movement." I don't expect this to change unless there is an indication that he is changing his mind.


Steve Harrison
Harrison continues to pick up endorsements and crucial volunteers. His campaign is influenced the least based on what the other potential candidates decide to do.


Diane Savino
Savino has had recent comments that she is not concerned about entering a primary after supporting Recchia up until now.


Mike McMahon
He wrote a recent letter to the editor in the Advance on the hospital situation on Staten Island. Potentially a sign that he is increasing his name recognition and appearance.


Domenic Recchia
Recent news that Recchia was looking to drop out (despite not declaring) the day of Fossella arrest is damaging. On top of that continued conversation about McMahon or Savino hints that institutional support might shift to them. On a plus side Vito Lopez may want a Brooklyn candidate in the race and has clearly supported Recchia up until now.


Mike Cusick
McMahon and Savino are dominating the media attention of these three potentials. I only believe one of them will declare if at all, meaning it looks like Cusick is not interested.


Abbate
I still find not path to Abbate being a top tier candidate should he jump in.


positive movement
downgraded movement
no movement

what do you think?
How do you see the trends going? What have you heard that I didn't cover?

Candidate speculation; August 2007, Harrison is in

With Harrison's announcement that he is in, he clearly is the front runner today. Councilman Recchia is still getting plenty of coverage in all the Harrison announcement articles, although he is not returning calls and has made zero movement so it is unclear why this is happening. Assemblyman Cusick has been downgraded after announceing the to SI Advance that he would not be running. Assemblywoman Hyer-Spencer has been downgraded as there has been no speculation at all regarding her for quite some time. Finally Councilman McMahon has been slightly upgraded to no movement, although he is clearly not running for this, he once again does not appear to want to make any public statements that he is not running. Good PR for him, bad news for the party

	no movement
	positive movement (towards candidacy)
	downgraded movement (away from candidacy)
	Stephen Harrison
	Council Member Recchia
	Council member McMahon
	Assemblywoman Hyer-Spencer
	State Senator Savino
	Assemblyman Cusick