Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 27

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will win their party's nomination. Latest updates are italicized and in green below.

Dates to watch
May 25-26 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - Staten Island Republican Party candidate interviews
Tuesday, May 27 - Staten Island Conservative Party candidate interviews
Tuesday, May 27 - Brooklyn Conservative Party candidate interviews
Tuesday, May 27 - Brooklyn Republican Party candidate interviews
Wednesday, May 28 - Staten Island Democratic candidate interviews
Thursday, May 29 - Independence Party candidate voting
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due

Potential Republican Candidates
Supreme Court Justice Joseph Maltese

via Advance

Members of the party executive committee interviewed a number of candidates for that slot and others last night, but held off on making a decision because two of the biggest names in the running -- state Sen. Andrew Lanza and acting state Supreme Court Justice Joseph Maltese -- did not come down for interviews.

upgraded

Paul Atanasio

Via the Daily News; "In a brief telephone interview today, Atanasio confirmed he is indeed considering a run for Fossella's seat, and will be meeting with Conservative and GOP leaders in the coming days."

former Assemblyman Robert Straniere

Via the Advance; "I'm very seriously taking a look at it," said Straniere."

"But Friscia said the response was "unfavorable" when he pitched a Straniere scenario to his fellow Republicans, including party elected officials."

Staten Island Republican Chairman John Friscia

via the Daily News saying "I'm not going to say I'm interested in it, I'm not going to say I'm not interested in it."

State Senator Andrew Lanza

Via the Daily News; "Lanza said he's unlikely to run for the seat his good friend, Fossella, is giving up, but has not yet officially made up his mind."

Lanza has the support of Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia, who might also be a candidate if Lanza declines.

He will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

State Senator Marty Golden

Golden was mentioned by Craig Eaton, below. Golden brings little to the race, risks another Republican Senate seat. He has a better chance than Eaton though as little as that is.

Brooklyn Republican Party Chair, Craig Eaton

Eaton dropped his own name as a potential candidate. He is now added to this list but with downgraded movement since no one other than he himself is dropping his name.

former Assembly candidate Todd Tobbacco


Richard Hoffman

Glenn Yost

ADDED
Carmine Morano, father of Frank Morano

ADDED
Richard Hoffman, Vice President of the borough Young Republicans

ADDED
Scott LoBaido

ADDED
Dennis McKeon

NOT RUNNING
District Attorney Dan Donovan
GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala
Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne
City Council Member James Oddo

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.

Harrison is now reported to be in talks with the DCCC.

City Council Member Mike McMahon

Mike McMahon is rumored to have met with the Central Labor Council, an umbrella group for labor organizations in the city.

McMahon has previously said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

ADDED
City Council Member Vinny Gentile

via Daily news

Councilman Vincent Gentile of Brooklyn added his name to the Dem mix, saying he doesn't believe the "myth" that a candidate from outside Staten Island can't win.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.

NOT RUNNING
State Senator Diane Savino