Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 22

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination. Latest updates are italicized and in green below. Two new Republican potential candidates have been added.

Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - Staten Island Republican Party candidate interviews
Tuesday, May 27 - Staten Island Conservative Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due
No date set for Staten Island Democratic candidate interviews

Potential Republican Candidates
State Senator Andrew Lanza

Lanza has the support of Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia, who might also be a candidate if Lanza declines.

He will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala

Fiala has support of members of the Independence Party.

He has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.

ADDED
Staten Island Republican Chairman John Friscia is quoted in the Daily News saying "I'm not going to say I'm interested in it, I'm not going to say I'm not interested in it."

Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne

Via the Advance; "Dr. Jamshad Wyne, the borough GOP's finance chair, holding a campaign fund-raiser last night and telling the Advance that he would run if state Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island) wasn't a candidate."

Wyne was expected to declare earlier this week.
update: downgraded to no movement

City Council Member James Oddo will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Despite that note Oddo rarely gets any press mentions and has an anger problem.

State Senator Marty Golden was mentioned by Craig Eaton, below. Golden brings little to the race, risks another Republican Senate seat. He has a better chance than Eaton though as little as that is.

Brooklyn Republican Party Chair, Craig Eaton dropped his own name as a potential candidate. He is now added to this list but with downgraded movement since no one other than he himself is dropping his name.

NOT RUNNING
District Attorney Dan Donovan

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.

Harrison is now reported to be in talks with the DCCC.

City Council Member Mike McMahon

Mike McMahon is rumored to have met with the Central Labor Council, an umbrella group for labor organizations in the city.

McMahon has previously said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate
update: downgraded to no movement

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.

NOT RUNNING
State Senator Diane Savino