Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 20

The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination.

Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - Republican Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due

Potential Republican Candidates
District Attorney Dan Donovan has spoken to Rep. Boehner and other national Republican Congressional leaders. Will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days.

State Senator Andrew Lanza will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

GOP County Clerk Stephen Fiala has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.

Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Dr. Jamshad Wyne is expected to declare today.

City Council Member James Oddo will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Despite that note Oddo rarely gets any press mentions and has an anger problem.

Potential Democrats Candidates
Steve Harrison has already declared.

City Council Member Mike McMahon said he was interested in running today. McMahon likely will not run if Cusick declares.
See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.

Assembly Member Mike Cusick said he was interested in running today. Cusick likely will not run if McMahon declares.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

Assembly Member Peter Abbate previously indicated that he would respect Senator Savino's decision only running. With her being downgraded below, his chances of running now increase. This is further enhanced by Recchia's likely deciding not to run creating a vacancy among the Brooklyn delegation of electeds. Not sure if Vito Lopez would support him. The NY Sun has an article today on Abbate and his tremendously strong connections to labor unions.
See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate

State Senator Diane Savino was absent in today's New York Times article where McMahon and Cusick were quoted as being interested in the race. This likely means she will only consider running if one of those two do not.
See: Potential Candidates: State Senator Diane Savino.

City Council Member Domenic Recchia has already indicated he is looking to drop out and unverified quotes attributed to him indicate he is talking with party officials about a decision for what is best for the party. Those are not strong indicators that he will continue running.