The likely Primary field should be set in 18 days

bumped: with update below

While speculation abounds about who wants to jump into this race we don't have to wait too long to know what the field will look like. Ballot petitioning starts on June 3 meaning we should know who is in by then. New York state requires Congressional candidates to collect 1,250 signatures [PDF] to get on the Democratic primary ballot. Candidates will have until July 17 to complete this and will need all of that time. Because this is New York City candidates need to collect well above the required signatures thanks to the numerous challenges that will occur and the subsequent disqualification of pages of signatures for various minor indiscretions. Candidates who win the support of the party will have their petitions carried by numerous volunteers for the party giving them a tremendous advantage.


Here is the amount of signatures required to get on the ballot for various parties in this district; [source, PDF]
1,250 Democrat
423 Independence
251 Conservative
56 WFP

The Independence Party will be screening candidates on May 25th.
WFP will be screening candidates later that week.

Expect the list of potential candidates to be a lot shorter by June 3. My guess at this point is that the list will be down to 2-3. I will expand more on this in future posts.

note: I have a feeling some of these numbers or dates may be off. Reading through New York State election law is not as fun as it may sound, nor clear and concise. So what did I miss?

update:
My readers are smarter than me, good work;

Nominating petitions are set to hit the street on June 3, and must be returned to the Board of Elections no later than July 10. Candidates who wish to decline a nomination must do so by July 14, elections officials told the Advance.

Thanks to the anonymous commenter who pointed this out.

Working Families Party looking to be influential here

The Working Families Party has pushed their candidate screening until the last week of May. This move comes as they look to be influential in determining which Democratic candidate will have their support, potentially determining the the favored candidate. Ballot petitioning required for candidates to get their names on the primary ballot starts June 3rd so WFP is looking to have as much time as possible to screen candidates. If you don't already know the strength of the WFP support take a look at a recent email they sent out;

Change is finally coming to the White House in 2008. But nothing gets done in Washington without Congress. That means for New Yorkers, the most important thing we can do this fall is make sure New York's 29 Members of Congress are ready to help lead the fight for universal healthcare, ending the war in Iraq, and investment in green technologies which will create thousands of living-wage jobs and help prevent environmental catastrophe.

The Working Families Party isn't new to lending a critical hand in big Congressional elections:

* In 2002, votes on the Working Families ballot line put Tim Bishop (Suffolk) over the top against incumbent Republican Felix Grucci.

* In 2004 we did it again, giving 8,000 "Row E" votes to Brian Higgins (Western NY) to give him the margin of victory over Republican Nancy Naples.

* In 2006, our renowned field operation added two more wins in New York (Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael Arcuri) and another in Connecticut (Chris Murphy).

This year, the retirement of Republican Congressmen Jim Walsh (Central NY), and Tom Reynolds (Western NY), plus the vulnerability of Vito Fossella (Staten Island/Brooklyn) and Randy Kuhl (Fingerlakes / WNY) means we have four chances to add another voice for ordinary New Yorkers in Congress.

Potential Candidates: Sen. Diane Savino

The following is the first part of a series on potential candidates for this Congressional seat. Currently only one candidate has declared, Steve Harrison.


Diane Savino is a State Senator representing the 23rd Sentate District covering the north shore of Staten Island as well as portions of Brooklyn including Borough Park, Coney Island, Bensonhurst, and Sunset Park. Her senate district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);



From her State Senate bio;

An active member of her local labor union, the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs, where she became one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State.

Sen. Savino was first elected to State Senate in 2004 and won re-election in 2006. She is up for re-election this November.

2004
Diane Savino (D, WFP): 63%
Al Curtis (R, I, C): 37%

2006
Diane Savino (D, I, WFP): 99%
no opponent

Why she could be the nominee
As noted above she has great ties to the labor community. In 2004 the Democratic nominee Frank Barbaro was able to raise $187,000 of his $425,000 from union contributions. She should be able to easily match Barbaro's financial success.

Savino was an Executive Board member for Working Families Party. WFP has been instrumental in providing very strong ground operations in two high profile State Senate races, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine. I often noted before Fossella's latest ethics problem that involvement by WFP would be critical in flipping this seat. She has the strongest connection of any of the candidates to WFP.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping her name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit her.


Why she might not be the nominee
A victory for Savino would put a state senate seat up for grabs in a year Democrats possibly are going to flip the Senate. She also is co-chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and in charge of recruitment. Certainly the New York State Party would not be supportive of her giving up this seat and she would give up all of her work towards reclaiming a majority.

Diane has up until this point publicly supported Domenic Recchia. Recchia would need to most likely drop out before Savino would enter.

She would start a congressional campaign with no money. [updated]

up next: Assembly member Cusick

Upstate special election is bad news for Fossella

Again voters in the state have shown that they are trending Democratic and excited by Democratic pick ups. Today in upstate NY there was a special election in the 48th Senate District. The district on paper is very Republican;

78,454 Republicans
46,824 Democrats
35,000 Independents

Yet went 52-48 for the new state senator Darrel Aubertine (D). To make matters worse the district was hit with terrible weather most of the day and yet a tremendous ground game in large part due to the Working Families Party has put the state senate one seat away from Democratic control. What does this all mean to Fossella? Well it can't be promising. Once again a strong ground operation has helped flip a formerly strong Republican seat. At some point the Working Families Party is going to become a major player in a Congressional race and the 13th seems like an ideal testing ground. If not the whole district, WFP involvement in the race for Andrew Lanza's senate seat, SD-24 would have a net positive impact on the congressional race.

Second, after Republicans were trounced in terms of turn out in the presidential primary in Fossella's district, there are clear signs that this is not an isolated incident. New Yorkers are leaving the Republican candidates they once supported in favor of change promised by Democrats.

Winning the ground game

After the success Democrats had this past week with Craig Johnson picking up a state senate seat in Long Island a new, yet not so new, model for winning campaigns, especially in moderate to conservative districts has emerged. And that is good old canvassing and a strong ground game.

The Working Families Party deserve a ton of credit for their focus on this race and their ability to mobilize and effectively train campaign volunteers to bring out unprecedented amount of voters for a special election in frigid conditions. With the help of the WFP, 45,000 homes were canvassed in 28 days in this district, aiding Craig Johnson's victory. That is no small feat.

via Daily Politics;

WFP supplied the campaign with 75 field canvassers, a hyperactive communications director, and support from party-linked unions, proving as always that there is no substitute for seasoned ground troops.

This victory in Long Island is the first Democratic state senate pick up in decades with very similar parallels to the history of several seats in the thirteenth district. We recently saw the start of a similar program with Manny Innamorato's campaign;

“Manny’s doing a lot of door-to-door, meeting people, talking one-on-one,” he said. “Those are potential voters. It’s a foundationary tool for getting out the vote. That process begins with petitioning.” [via Tom W's blog]

The WFP GOTV effort has shown us that the old rhetoric that a seat is not winnable or is too conservative no longer rings true. How scalable and influential can this be in a congressional district in a Presidential year, well that remains to be seen. However we have learned one thing, that here in New York City, where incumbents and party machines seem to rule, good old canvassing and volunteer armies can shake things up from time to time.