### Vulnerable Republican representatives

There is an interesting if not slightly complex analysis by a blogger over at Swing State Project that attempts to use statistics to understand competitive Congressional districts. I won't say I can elaborate any more on plf515's analysis but some of it may look familiar as I have tried to tackle similar topics (demographics and PVI);

If you want to model the probability that a district will elect a Democrat, then the predicted value is the probability of them electing a Democrat. If they *do* elect one, then the residual is 1 - the probability. If they elect a Republican, then the residual is the probability. So, one way of looking at vulnerability is to see Republicans who have high residuals - that is, the district seems likely to elect a Democrat.

For our first model, we'll use Cook PVI as the IV. Cook PVI is basically a measure of how the district voted in 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.

Not surprisingly, there's a strong relationship between Cook PVI and congresperson's party: The mean Cook PVI in Republican represented districts was R + 9; in those represented by Democrats, it was D + 11.

There are 25 districts where the model predicts a Democrat, but there really is a Republican:

Now, let's look at models of demographics:

If we model race (%Black, %Latino and %Other Race.... leaving out %White to avoid collinearity) we get the not surprising result that increases in any of these make the district more likely to elect a Democrat.

Based on this model, there are 70 vulnerable Republicans

TX02 AL01 AL03 AZ01 CA03 CA21 CA24 CA26 CA41 CA42 CA44 CA45 CA48 CA49 CA50 CA52 CT04 DEAL GA01 GA10 IL06 NC08 NJ07 NM01 NM02 NV03NY13OH01 OH12 OK05 TX03 TX07 TX10 TX26 TX31 TX32 VA01 VA05 VA10 VA11 WA08 SC04 AL02 FL21 GA07 MS03 NJ02 OK04 TX24 VA02 AKAL CA19 CA22 CA25 CA46 FL18 FL25 GA08 LA04 LA05 LA06 LA07 MS01 OK01 SC01 SC02 TX01 TX06 TX14 VA04

NY13 has a D+1 PVI and is the 12th most vulnerable district in terms of PVI vs. incumbent's political party.

Next, I looked at income and urban-ness, and, again not surprisingly, districts that are higher income are more likely to be Republican, and those that are more Urban are more likely to be Democratic. Based on this model there are 79 vulnerable Republican districts:

AZ02 AZ03 CA03 CA21 CA26 CA41 CA44 CA45 CA49 CA50 CA52 FL01 FL07 FL08 FL09 FL10 FL12 FL13 FL14 FL15 FL24 IL06 KS04 LA01 MI11 NJ03 NJ04 NM01 NM02 NV03NY13OH01 OH12 OH15 OK05 PA15 PA18 TX03 TX07 TX13 TX26 TX31 TX32 WA04 WI01 SC04 FL06 FL21 NE02 NJ02 OH03 TX11 TX24 UT03 VA02 AZ06 CA02 CA19 CA22 CA25 CA46 CO05 FL04 FL18 FL25 LA06 LA07 NV02 OH08 OK01 SC01 TN02 TX02 TX06 TX12 TX19 UT01 WA05

The 2000 Census shows that in Staten Island family household income was struggling to make ends meet. 15.2% of the borough made less than $25,000.

5.3% made less than $10,000

3.3% made $10,000 to $14,999

6.6% made $15,000 to $24,999

Finally, let's put it all into one model. This model worked somewhat better, and identified 20 hyper-vulnerable Republicans.

AL03 AZ01 CT04 DEAL FL10 KY05 MI07 NM01 NV03NY13NY23 PA03 PA15 WA08 NJ02 PA06 IA04 MI04 MI06 OH06

Only 5 members of Congress feel into all three categories, one being our very own Rep. Vito Fossella.

Labels: PVI, Rep. Vito Fossella, swing state project

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