A preview of 3Q fundraising numbers

In anticipation of third quarter FEC filings I took a look at 48 Hour Contribution Notices to see how the two campaigns are comparing. FEC rules state that campaigns must report any contribution over $1,000 when that contribution comes within 20 days of an election. Here is what the two campaigns have filed so far;

Bob Straniere: $35,300
Mike McMahon: $48,000

This brings Bob's cumulative total to $50,000 in donations, without seeing his smaller donations. This still puts him only about $700,000 behind McMahon.

Fossella in Financial Trouble and Denial, part II

In last night's post I was a little too hasteful in my thinking that FEC reports would be available later this week. That is not the case. They will be available closer to January 15th. But there is plenty of analysis to keep you occupied;

Yesterday's post quoted Georgea Kaye, Fossella's spokesperson as saying the committee raised between $1.2 and 1.8 million each election cycle. Either Rep. Fossella and his staffers are ignorant of their own past or they are just putting out lies hoping no one calls them on it. Totals for his past election cycles;

2000 - $1.285 million
2002 - $758k
2004 - $1.124 m
2006 - $1.488 m

So two of his campaign cycles amassed between $1.2 and 1.8 million. Although they never topped $1.5 million so that $1.8 million figure is rather strange. Of course two of the other campaigns did not even total $1.2 million. Maybe they round up? A lot.

Next it seems ambitious to say that based off of past fund raising production that this year they again will raise at least $1.2 million. With $383,000 in net contributions Rep. Fossella would need to bring in $204,000 in each quarter just to reach $1.2 million for the entire cycle. This is how he has done thus far this cycle per quarter:

4Q 2006 - $0
1Q 2007 - $133,000
2Q 2007 - $151,000
3Q 2007 - $99,000

To wrap this up unless Rep. Fossella pulls in over $200,000 in contributions in his 4Q FEC filing he is failing to meet his own minimum expectations. This is something he has not been able to do once during this election cycle. This will be a telling sign of how much trouble his campaign might be in.

Fossella in Financial Trouble and Denial

Consider these unfortunate situations for Rep. Fossella, at the same point, (August to September) the year before each of his previous elections;

* He has never been in more debt than he is now
* He has never had less cash on hand than he has now
* Only once has he had a worse third quarter of fund raising than he did this year

Yesterday marked the end of the fourth quarter (Oct-Dec) of fund raising for Fossella and is going to be quite telling. Several stories have come out highlighting his abysmal fund raising. Then there is the denial;

This time around, Fossella’s pockets are not yet full. As of Sept. 30, the five-term incumbent had just $50,000 on hand for his presumed re-election campaign, while Harrison had already raised $37,000. Fossella’s lack of funds is due, in part, to the $209,000 in debt he accrued in 2006.

Fossella’s campaign spokeswoman, Georgea Kaye, dismissed any concerns about Fossella’s finances.

“The committee raises between $1.2 and $1.8 million every election cycle and we are on track to reach our goals this cycle as well,” said Kaye.

Fossella's lack of funds is partially due to his debt, caused by a hard race against Harrison in 2006. This accounts for his horrendous cash on hand as he pays off debts. This time during the last campaign he had nearly 11 times the amount of cash on hand. But that is not the whole story. Fossella is failing to raise the same amounts of money he has done in the past. At this point in the last campaign he had amassed nearly twice the amount of total contributions than he has done so far.

3Q 2007
Net Q: 98,735 [second lowest]
Net: 383,160
CoH: 50,286 [lowest ever]
Debt: 73,582 [highest ever]

3Q 2005
Net Q: 360,563
Net: 715,390
CoH: 538,805
Debt: 31,478

3Q 2003
Net Q: 55,900
Net: 173,151
CoH: 154,937
Debt: 1,486

3-4Q 2001 *
Net Q: 101,998
Net: 234,275
CoH: 308,739
Debt: 0

3-4Q 1999 *
Net Q: 237,047
Net: 344,309
CoH: 202,283
Debt: 5,523

* Up to 2001 Rep. Fossella was only required to submit financial reports for six month increments from July-Dec. Since 2001 he has to split that into a 3rd Quarter (July-September) and 4th Quarter (October-December) report.

Later this week we should have the FEC reports for the fourth quarter (October to December 2007) for Rep. Fossella as well as Stephen Harrison and Domenic Recchia. Unless he is able to get closer to $200k in contributions for this quarter he is likely to not be able to finish off his debt and potentially could be behind one if not two of his Democratic challengers. If this happens his campaign is officially in free fall. Bring on those 4Q numbers!

Fossella in "shockingly bad shape"

via Open Left;

However, one quarter of the House has under $250,000 in the bank (61 Democrats and 55 Republicans). Here's a look at the 55 Republicans who are short on cash.

snip

Many of the remaining members come from relatively safe districts but more than a few are in shockingly bad shape. Here's some of the names in trouble.

snip

Vito Fossella polled 57% against a weak opponent in a New York City district with a Democratic PVI. That's bad. To make matters worse, Fossella burned through most of his $106,000 stash of June 30 to leave the third quarter with $50,286.

Daily Politics coverage of Fossella's 3Q fundraising

via Elizabeth at Daily Politics;

- Rep. Vito Fossella, 13th CD, ranks 234th. He spent almost as much as he raised, $358,629 and $396,514, respectively, and has $50,286 on hand plus $73,582 worth of debt. His 2006 Democratic opponent, Steve Harrison, who is running again next fall, raised $37,618, spent $6,849 and has $37,367 on hand plus $1,595 worth of debt.

The article gathers year to date financial numbers which probably casts Fossella's finances in too good of a light. We already have covered that the third quarter was bad for Fossella where he spent more money than he brought in $152k to $98 and his cash on hand more than likely is entirely only general election funds.

3Q Analysis

Stephen Harrison (D)
• Only 3 donors are maxed out for the primary which leaves lot's of potentially untapped funds
• He has a modest showing on ActBlue, 23 donors yet only Mole333 at DailyGotham is really pushing this so I am curious where those donors came from


Vito Fossella (R)
• $14,100 from my count of his contributions are for the General Election, meaning of his $50k Cash on Hand, only $36k of that is usable before the September 2008 primary, putting him that much further in the hole. After seeing that I went back to his 2Q numbers and he has $36k from that filing that is General Election only, so he is carrying $50k in funds that he can't use before the primary, equal to his current Cash on Hand. (I have to double check some of the finer details of this I am no expert in FEC laws)
• He continues to get Union support, although minimal (Carpenters, Operating Engineers, Painters IUPAT, Laborers)
• The only notable local party elected to contribution this quarter was former Assembly Candidate Anthony Xanthakis, updated; he was only a candidate
• Wal-Mart once again is contributing to Fossella's campaign (this was the same donation from 2Q)