Sen. Lanza Withdraws

via the Advance;

"At the end of the day, it was the family," Lanza said in a telephone interview. "The kids made the decision for me."

Lanza is the father of three children who range in age from 4 to 11 years old.

"They are right in the heart of the formative years," said Lanza. "I don't want to look back and count up the hundreds of things I wasn't there for for the kids. I'm not willing to make that complete sacrifice."

But we alredy knew that.

Lanza (R) looking like he is out, Republicans in shambles

Earlier tonight I downgraded Lanza's likelihood that he will jump in the race. Previously there were a few comments that seemed to have tell tale signs that he wasn't sold on running for Congress. Now comes this;

"Lanza said he's unlikely to run for the seat his good friend, Fossella, is giving up, but has not yet officially made up his mind."

This would probably be bad news for Sen. Marty Golden's candidacy as well. Lanza was the top tier candidate coming out of the Senate for this race. Worse for Republicans is if they lose Lanza they are clearly on third tier candidates. As the latest speculation post shows now people simply registered as Republican with no experience are being name dropped. That is desperation. via the NY Times;

“We’re hurting,” said Guy V. Molinari, the former Staten Island borough president and dean of the island’s Republicans. “I think that the Congressional seat is probably the most coveted seat locally. And yet, with the vacancy approaching, those that we thought would be the leading candidates in this case, particularly the incumbent elected officials, are taking a pass.”

As if that wasn't bad enough disagreements by factions within the Republican Party may doom the Party and veto any legitimate candidate before the election gets under way. Via the NY Times;

In fact, Mr. Molinari described Mr. Straniere’s chances of being supported by the Republican leadership as “impossible.” He said that Mr. Straniere “would not be at all acceptable to the Republican Party. I would speculate that 98 percent of the Republican County Committee would say, ‘No dice.’ They would rather vote for a Democrat than for Straniere.”

snip

“If they can’t run a front-line candidate,” Mr. Flanagan said, “it becomes: Advantage Democrats.” [emphasis mine]

Sen. Lanza about to withdraw as well?

It appears as though Sen. Andrew Lanza is preparing for an exit from this race, following on the sudden exit by Dan Donovan.

via the NY Times;

Speculation centered on State Senator Andrew J. Lanza. But officials close to the senator said he was not inclined to run. Mr. Lanza is under intense pressure from Republican leaders in Albany to remain where he is. If he decides to run for Congress, Mr. Lanza would have to leave the Senate at a time when the Democrats need to capture just two seats to take control of the Senate for the first time in 40 years.

His withdraw may have little to do with Donovan's decision as it may have been in the works for a few days already. As we covered earlier recent comments appearing the Advance indicate that ironically family values may keep him from replacing Fossella his childhood friend;

"It's the so-called prize, but at what price?" Lanza (R-Staten Island) asked the Advance yesterday.

snip

Lanza said the state Legislature's six-month session and generally shorter workweek also allow him to devote time to both public service and his family.

snip

"I'm still away too much, but I've been able to strike a little bit of a balance."

We have seen the family dilemma not play itself out as expected with Mike McMahon, so we may see a similar response with Lanza. The decision is really a catch-22. Stay in the Senate and the party is forced to put up a third tier candidate for the Congressional race. Run for the Congressional seat and he is forced to give up his Senate seat which could cause the Senate to flip to the Democrats. The Senate is the lowest risk and allows him to be the leading contender for this Congressional race down the line in a more pro-Republican environment.

Dan Donovan won't run

This is excruciatingly painful news for the Republican Party in Staten Island. Donovan as the District Attorney offered the clearest counter to Fossella's ethical and legal improprieties. He was courted by Minority Leader Rep. Boehner and NRCC Chair Rep. Cole well before Fossella declared he wasn't running. He had the clear support of the national party, just no promises to any financial help.

"I feel that at this time, I am best able to serve the people of Staten Island in the position to which they re-elected me by such an overwhelming margin just six months ago, as their District Attorney. Therefore, I am now removing my name for consideration for a candidacy for Congress."

Donovan was the only candidate the Republican party had that ran a successful borough wide race. The only legitimate back up choice now is State Senate Andrew Lanza, childhood friend of Fossella who has to pick between a senate seat where he soon will be in the minority or a congressional race he is not assured to win where he also will be in the minority. Before the Donovan announcement is appeared that Lanza was setting himself up for a graceful withdraw from Congressional speculation with comments like these;

"It's the so-called prize, but at what price?"

Lanza said the state Legislature's six-month session and generally shorter workweek also allow him to devote time to both public service and his family.

"I'm still away too much, but I've been able to strike a little bit of a balance."

The pressure certainly has to be intense now as his state party will be demanding he not give up his Senate Seat and the National party trying to throw anything they have at him to entice him to give it all up for what appears to be a gamble. Cusick or McMahon will now be all in as aggressively as they can be. This seat just inched closer towards leaning Democratic.

Consider this a massive loss for the NRCC, one in a long long line of them this cycle. Or if you are a Republican think of it as a strategic part of your Regain Our Majority Program. First you added an incumbent to that program, and he got arrested. Then you have a successor to hold the seat, not gain a seat, and he declines. Now you will offer up a third tier candidate to carry the party's banner.

If you can't see how this is not all part of their plan to "regain" their majority you must be blind.

Will elected Dems match the Republicans investment?

With Rep. Vito Fossella's second quarter financial filing numbers we get a good insight to how many elected Republicans, that he has played a large role in getting into those offices, are funding his re-election campaign. The question is, will 2008 be different for local Democrats? In the past there has been lots of talk about taking out Fossella but very little financial support to the nominees. Here are the Republicans putting money up to keep this seat in Republican hands:

State Senator Andrew Lanza; $1,000
Staten Senator Marty Golden; $1,000

Assemblyman Lou Tobacco; $1,000

City Councilman Vincent Ignizio; $1,000
City Councilman James Oddo; $1,000

Until there is either one Democratic challenger or the primary determines a winner, our elected Dems;

* Senator Savino
* Assemblyman Titone
* Assemblyman Cusick
* Assemblywoman Hyer-Spencer
* Councilman McMahon
* Councilman DeBlasio

to name a few and anyone else who wants to invest in taking down Fossella and everything comes with that can give to the NY-13 General Fund which will be distributed to the primary winner to use in the General Election. Thanks to ActBlue.com for making this possible.

UPDATE: Sorry that title should be 'will' Dems step up not 'why', clearly this is a call out to challenge them to match their Republican counter parts.

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Fossella losing the Conservative ballot line?

I have been sitting on some old articles by Tom Wrobleski, trying to make sense of some comments and see what came out of them. In a June 18 article, "The intrigue behind BP's community board moves", he writes about Borough President James Molinaro's recent changing of community board members via his power to appoint and retain members at his discretion;

In a bid to bring in new faces, Molinaro has removed 11 members from Staten Island's trio of community boards, including eight members of the South Shore's Board 3.

One reason, insiders said: Some deposed Board 3 members, including chairman John Antoniello, Public Service Committee head William D'Ambrosio and Environmental Committee chair Gregory Markow, are Republican Party supporters of South Shore GOP lawmakers, notably state Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island).

The article goes on to outline the feud between Lanza and Molinaro. Lanza as we know comes out of the South Shore Republican machine which officially or not acts on the graces of Rep. Vito Fossella. When Molinaro intervened in the State Senate primary for Sen. Marchi's seat, he allowed Robert Helbock take the Conservative Party nomination potentially splitting the party when it got to the polls. Needless to say the two are not as close as Fossella and President Bush. The intriguing part of all of this though, is the Fossella connection. Lanza is a Fossella supporter, which puts Fossella and Molinaro in a less than amicable relationship.

The implications could be far-reaching. One observer pointed out that no members were removed from Board 1, which covers the North Shore area represented by Democratic Councilman Michael McMahon.

McMahon and Lanza are both mentioned as possible candidates for higher office, and Molinaro has great influence over who receives the coveted Conservative endorsement in campaigns.

McMahon aside, although a point we should remember to revisit, consider that statement with 2008 implications. Should this feud go any further we might be watching a rather intriguing split in the Republican party on the island and the potential to withhold the Conservative ballot line from Rep. Fossella who votes a lot more 'Bush Republican' than he does true Conservative, or worse do we see the ballot line thrown to a Democrat in exchange for not forgetting Staten Island for the glitz of DC.

In 2004 Fossella garnered 8,400 votes on the Conservative line, or 1.9% of his total, a task that will most likely be improved upon should he get the nod. I am not going to put any money on a Democrat pulling the Conservative line, but a split ticket with a Conservative going up against Fossella could make things real interesting, all the while giving the Republican candidate for President both ballot lines if desired.

There is an identity crisis going on in the district with Republicans. The Fossella Republicans are not your parents or grand parents Conservatives, despite the implication when they share ballot lines. One is a party of limited and smaller government, the other is Rep. Fossella voting that the Government should intervene in family issues like the Terri Schiavo case. One is for free market economics, the other has Fossella giving millions of dollars in tax breaks to billion dollar oil industries. I enjoy pulling up a bleacher seat and watching the two parties wrest for control of the 'Republican' tag and hope some more Conservatives start seeing the error of Fossella.

see also:
WFP, Con, and Ind Party Strengths
WFP, Con, and Ind Party Strengths, Part II

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Innamorato pledges to serve full term

Sad that this is actually news and a positive campaign position. Via the SI Advance;

Innamorato pointed out that South Shore residents will elect their fifth Council member since 1990 when they go to the polls next week.

Alfred Cerullo, Vito Fossella, Stephen Fiala and Andrew Lanza have in turn held the seat.

Each left in the middle of terms to seek higher office or accept other jobs in government.

"He [Manny Innamorato] pledged to serve out 'whatever term voters will elect me to.'" Ignizio appears not to have made any indication that he will do the same.