Tim Cochrane, Conservative Party nominee

Who?

Brooklyn Republican Tim Cochrane is the Conservative Party's new candidate for the 13th Congressional District seat, replacing Paul Atanasio, who dropped out earlier this week.

Interestingly their nominee appears to be a registered Republican and not a Conservative Party member. The Republicans you may recall have a nominee already, Bob Straniere. The Brooklyn Daily Eagle mentions that Cochrane was being considered for the nomination along with Atanasio back in the spring;

Conservatives are looking to two Brooklyn possibilities. One is Paul Atanasio, 59, who nearly unseated Brooklyn Democratic Congressman Leo Zefferetti in 1980. The retired investment banker is an enrolled Conservative Party member, and Long was his campaign manager in his 1980 race. Atanasio is the brother-in-law of Larry Giovanna, a close friend to Kassar, Long and other top conservatives The other Brooklyn resident is Tim Cochrane, Xavarian High School’s director of development.

Did Molinaro and the Conservative Party force Donovan out?

It looks like Borough President Jame Molinaro and the Conservative Party as exuding their influence over the Republican nominees. An overpassed quote from yesterday suddenly becomes very telling after the sudden and extremely unexpected withdraw by Donovan.

via the Advance

But sparks flew when Borough President James P. Molinaro, who has feuded with Donovan, was asked yesterday how he'd feel if Donovan ran. Molinaro's Conservative Party could play a key role in the race.

"It's not my choice," he told reporters following an event at City Hall.

When reporters persisted, Molinaro said, "You're fishing, and I'm not taking the hook."

But Molinaro added that he is "definitely not sitting this out."

Today without much explanation Donovan the clear favorite of the national Republican Congressional leaders withdrew his name. Then consider this, while no one publicly called for Fossella's resignation and many eventually came to his defense when it looked like he was staying, Molinaro said;

At the end of the day, he doesn't run.

The day after that statement Fossella showed up at a Conservative Party dinner unannounced and then three days later declared he was not seeking re-election.

ENDA and Fossella's Conservative support

On Friday the House passed the ENDA bill which prohibits discrimination in the workplace based on sexual orientation. Rep. Vito Fossella, to his credit actually broke with his Republican Party and President Bush, a rarity and voted in favor of this legislation. As Fossella continues to feel the pressure of having to ideologically move to try his hardest to retain his seat he is going to start alienating the Conservatives of his district.

Recently we have seen the Conservative Party threatening to oppose Rep. Walsh, an upstate Republican over his departure from the party stance on the war. While Fossella is still holding fast to his support of President Bush and the never ending war in Iraq, movement on issues like ENDA may be the first indications of a fractured relationship with Conservative voters and possibly the Conservative Party.

While I strongly disagree with their sentiments comments like this is what Fossella is up against trying to hold onto a seat in a Democratic leaning district;

“We will remember this vote for violating religious liberties and making homosexuality and other sexual orientations into federally-protected classes. We will remind our supporters in 2008 about who voted against their religious freedom and in favor of sexually abnormal behaviors.” [via Traditional Values Coalition]

Fossella can't rely on NRCC for support

Following on Fossella's 3Q filings and his sub-par fund raising abilities comes more bad news. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), counter part to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is yet again struggling to raise any money and lagging incredibly far behind the DCCC. In fact just like Vito Fossella the NRCC is in operating debt. via the Wall Street Journal;

The Republican congressional campaign committee is in debt, while the Democrats' committee said Wednesday it has raised $28 million.

The article goes on to list many more agonies for the NRCC such as not having the money to recruit challengers to take on incumbent Democrats, having to defend many more seats to retirement than the Democrats (12 R's to 2 D's) and that independents have been breaking towards the Democrats because of opposition to the War, aka Fossella's War in Iraq.

If this doesn't spell bad news for Fossella, it most certainly does not help him sleep at night. His party must start to decide if they spend money defending incumbents, defending open seats or going after Democratic freshmen (typically the easiest incumbents to challenge). Chances are there will be no money coming from the party to help Fossella or in terms of opposition spending (going after the Democratic challenger). Fossella's fund raising is hurting and not likely to get any better as his party already is getting ready for at least another two years in the minority.

If that wasn't bad enough having Independents, the real kind not the kind Fossella claims to be, break for Democrats makes running in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage that much harder. And then there are the conservatives within his own party frustrated at unheard of spending on this war and the chance Fossella could lose the Conservative Party ballot line.

Vito, just retire and then you can take trips to Vail all you want without worrying about those nagging ethics problems.

h/t to Brandon English over at The Stakeholder once again for drawing attention to this WSJ article.

Fossella losing the Conservatine party ballot line, part II

On July 2 [Fossella losing the Conservative party ballot], I pondered in a piece the potential for Vito Fossella the potential that the Conservative Party may throw their endorsement to someone other than Fossella in 2008 and the ramifications that will have on his candidacy. Essentially the lose of the ballot line for Fossella could tip this seat to the Democratic nominee.

Should this feud go any further we might be watching a rather intriguing split in the Republican party on the island and the potential to withhold the Conservative ballot line from Rep. Fossella who votes a lot more 'Bush Republican' than he does true Conservative, or worse do we see the ballot line thrown to a Democrat in exchange for not forgetting Staten Island for the glitz of DC.

In 2004 Fossella garnered 8,400 votes on the Conservative line, or 1.9% of his total, a task that will most likely be improved upon should he get the nod. I am not going to put any money on a Democrat pulling the Conservative line, but a split ticket with a Conservative going up against Fossella could make things real interesting, all the while giving the Republican candidate for President both ballot lines if desired.

In the recent news roundup was an intriguing bit of information that extrapolated on this notion. Tom Wrobleski not so subtly hints at the same potential outcome that the Conservative Party could really throw a wrench in things or better put force candidates to pay attention to constituen interests;

On Conservate BP Molinaro's presence at a Democratic party event;

"People can read into it whatever they want," Molinaro said. "No one is assured of an endorsement from me. No one. I will do what I feel is in the interest of the Conservative Party." [via Tom Wrobleksi at the SI Advance]

Certainly this may just be a bi-partisan (rare I know) approach to addressing the needs of the borough, but his demeanor and mere suggestion that he is not in Fossella's back pocket have to raise quite a few eyebrows. Clearly Tom is intrigued.

Fossella losing the Conservative ballot line?

I have been sitting on some old articles by Tom Wrobleski, trying to make sense of some comments and see what came out of them. In a June 18 article, "The intrigue behind BP's community board moves", he writes about Borough President James Molinaro's recent changing of community board members via his power to appoint and retain members at his discretion;

In a bid to bring in new faces, Molinaro has removed 11 members from Staten Island's trio of community boards, including eight members of the South Shore's Board 3.

One reason, insiders said: Some deposed Board 3 members, including chairman John Antoniello, Public Service Committee head William D'Ambrosio and Environmental Committee chair Gregory Markow, are Republican Party supporters of South Shore GOP lawmakers, notably state Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island).

The article goes on to outline the feud between Lanza and Molinaro. Lanza as we know comes out of the South Shore Republican machine which officially or not acts on the graces of Rep. Vito Fossella. When Molinaro intervened in the State Senate primary for Sen. Marchi's seat, he allowed Robert Helbock take the Conservative Party nomination potentially splitting the party when it got to the polls. Needless to say the two are not as close as Fossella and President Bush. The intriguing part of all of this though, is the Fossella connection. Lanza is a Fossella supporter, which puts Fossella and Molinaro in a less than amicable relationship.

The implications could be far-reaching. One observer pointed out that no members were removed from Board 1, which covers the North Shore area represented by Democratic Councilman Michael McMahon.

McMahon and Lanza are both mentioned as possible candidates for higher office, and Molinaro has great influence over who receives the coveted Conservative endorsement in campaigns.

McMahon aside, although a point we should remember to revisit, consider that statement with 2008 implications. Should this feud go any further we might be watching a rather intriguing split in the Republican party on the island and the potential to withhold the Conservative ballot line from Rep. Fossella who votes a lot more 'Bush Republican' than he does true Conservative, or worse do we see the ballot line thrown to a Democrat in exchange for not forgetting Staten Island for the glitz of DC.

In 2004 Fossella garnered 8,400 votes on the Conservative line, or 1.9% of his total, a task that will most likely be improved upon should he get the nod. I am not going to put any money on a Democrat pulling the Conservative line, but a split ticket with a Conservative going up against Fossella could make things real interesting, all the while giving the Republican candidate for President both ballot lines if desired.

There is an identity crisis going on in the district with Republicans. The Fossella Republicans are not your parents or grand parents Conservatives, despite the implication when they share ballot lines. One is a party of limited and smaller government, the other is Rep. Fossella voting that the Government should intervene in family issues like the Terri Schiavo case. One is for free market economics, the other has Fossella giving millions of dollars in tax breaks to billion dollar oil industries. I enjoy pulling up a bleacher seat and watching the two parties wrest for control of the 'Republican' tag and hope some more Conservatives start seeing the error of Fossella.

see also:
WFP, Con, and Ind Party Strengths
WFP, Con, and Ind Party Strengths, Part II

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