Another Siena poll, Tom Wrobleski doesn't cover it

Remember how Tom covered one cherry picked poll by Siena showing a 46-41% lead for Obama? Tom didn't say this was bad news himself but he did interview others and printed them saying so. Well there is now four polls since that article showing Obama with 13, 17, 19 and 22 point leads. The last is Siena's newest poll showing Obama leading in New York 58-6%. So where are the follow up articles with Tom interviewing people about what this massive lead for Obama will do to New York races? Well I am sure it will come any day now...

Obama up 19 in latest poll

Remember Tom was telling us we should be concerned that Obama might be underperforming in New York, but it wasn't his belief, it was the belief of others that he was just sharing with us? Well there is now a third poll released since his cherry picked outlier. SurveyUSA shows Obama now up 19 points, 57%-38%.



Expect Tom to have a new article any day saying the race won't be close and his last article on the polling was a mistake and unprofessional...

Tom Wrobleski concern trolling over Obama polling in NY

In April I talked about Tom Wrobleski being a concern troll for saying Obama at the top of the ticket would hurt the Democratic congressional nominee despite the only numbers, primary day turnout, showing quite the opposite. Today Tom pushes a Siena poll that shows Obama up 5 points in New York;

Borough Democrats aren't too concerned about polls last week that showed presidential candidate Barack Obama on some shaky ground in New York State and New Jersey.

A Siena College poll showed Obama up by only 5 points over Republican John McCain in normally true-blue New York.

I say Tom is pushing the poll because that poll was conducted from September 8-10. Tom chose that poll because the narrative seems good, Obama could be in trouble in New York. The only problem is that there have been two new polls in New York between that poll and Tom's column running that show Obama up 12 and 14 points respectively. You would have to go back to another Siena poll in April to show Obama with only a 5 point lead. Here is the polling for New York. See if you can find the same reason for concern that Tom found;



So why did he hand pick one poll that would otherwise be considered an outlier instead of saying all other polls and all poll averages show Obama is up double digits over McCain in New York? To borrow from our last post on Tom being a concern troll;

"It seems the biggest thing stopping that is that it wouldn't be news worthy."

Poll: Should Fossella go to jail?

The NY Daily News is running an online poll asking;

Vito Fossella's drunk driving arrest
Should the S.I. congressman go to jail?

The poll currently stands at 66% yes. Let them know what you think.

Signs of vulnerability, Fossella commissions poll

I was reading through FEC filings (who doesn't?) and found an interesting bit, Vito Fossella had spent $26,000 on polling back in January. Fossella hired Public Opinion Strategies for an unknown polling opperation;



Now Real Clear Politics has picked this up in their roundup on FEC filings;

Fossella spent more than $25,000 on polling with the very reputable Public Opinion Strategies this quarter, so if he starts hauling in a lot more money and getting aggressive, one could surmise that the poll held at least some bad news that scared the five-term incumbent.

Real Clear Politics was pointing out Fossella massive burn rate on contributions and how Recchia has now passed him on cash on hand putting Fossella in unchartered territory, being behind in the money game. That aside his commission of this polling has to be a good sign for Democrats regardless of the results. You do not spend that money on polling if you are easily going to coast to victory. In August of 2006 Fossella again commissioned a poll which seemed to have indicated potential trouble for him. While he never made any of the results public he did go on soon after to finally agree to debates with Harrison and started making himself more visible in the district. Fossella is doing this eight months earlier than he did last cycle. Consider this another sign of concern for Fossella. No matter how you look at it you can't spin this as a sign of strength.

55% of likely voters choose Democratic Congressional Candidates

via Gallup;

According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008, only 41% of adults likely to vote this November say they would support the Republican candidate running in their congressional district. Fifty-five percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

In 2006 when Democrats swept Congressional races and Fossella faced a scare with his closest election Gallup had Republican support at 44%.

h/t Jonathan Singer, MyDD

Fossella must face voters dissatisfied with Republicans

via Rasmussen polling;

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 48% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 36% would opt for the Republican.

This is a national poll, and not specific to this district, but it does make things difficult to Rep. Fossella.

How does America feel about Fossella's war in Iraq: Troop Escalation

via CBS News/NY Times poll (July 9-17, 2007)

"As you may know, the U.S. has sent more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far?"


Better 20%
Worse 22%
No Impact 51%
Unsure 07%

How does America feel about Fossella's war in Iraq: Troop removal

via CBS News/NY Times poll (July 9-17, 2007)

"From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do now? Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq?"

Increase 12%
Same 18%
Decrease 29%
Remove All 34%
Unsure 07%

How does America feel about Fossella's war in Iraq?

via CBS News/NY Times poll (July 9-17, 2007)

"How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly?"


Very Well 02%
Somewhat Well 23%
Somewhat Badly 29%
Very Badly 45%
Unsure 01%

Democratic House pickups likely in 2008

via Chicago Sun Times;

Private House Democratic polls of the 50 most competitive congressional districts project a gain of 9 to 11 seats in the 2008 elections that would be an unprecedented further surge by the party after its 2006 gain of 30 seats to win control of the House.

All previous major surges of House seats have been followed by losses in the next election. The 54-seat Republican gain in 1994 that produced GOP House control was followed by an eight-seat loss in 1996. However, the current Republican political slump, fueled by President Bush's unpopularity, would reverse that pattern if the election were held today, according to the Democratic polls.

Now remember the DCCC press release earlier in the year that showed a few House targets;

We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13).

Rep. Renzi has resigned all his committee seats after the FBI raided a family business.
Rep. Doolittle has resigned all his committee seats after his house was raided by the FBI.
On deck is Jerry Lewis followed by Fossella.

Americans don't support Bush and Fossella veto

via MSNBC;

As the Democrat-controlled Congress and the White House clash over an Iraq spending bill, with President Bush vowing to veto it because it contains withdrawal deadlines, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a solid majority of Americans side with the Democrats.

In addition, a nearly equal number believe that victory in Iraq isn't possible, and about only one in eight think the war has improved in the three months since Bush called for a troop increase there.

69% of Americans don't approve of the way Bush is handling Iraq

60% of Americans want a deadline set before fall 2008 for the removal of US troops
55% of Americans do not think victory in Iraq is possible

Americans support our troops, Fossella supports Bush

From Iowa comes this poll of likely Republicans caucus attendees;

Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months?

Yes 52%
No 39%
Undecided 9%

In Kentucky, home of two Republican Senators and a Republican Governor (opposite of NY), is this poll;

Would you favor or oppose a plan to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq this summer, and have almost all troops out of Iraq by the middle of next year?

Favor.........64%
Oppose........28%
Don't know.....7%

As you may know, President Bush has proposed an increase of twenty-one thousand additional troops in Iraq. Do you favor or oppose President Bush's troop increase in Iraq?

Strongly favor......21%
Somewhat favor......15%
Total favor.........36%
Somewhat oppose.....14%
Strongly oppose.....45%
Total oppose........59%
Don't know...........4%

Rep. Vito Fossella, you support President Bush's troop increase, in fact you voted against the House resolution opposing the escalation choosing to side with Bush over the American people. What is your deal? If you would, and I don't mean to use the word 'benchmark' or 'time table' but could you give us an indication or reference point at which time you feel the interest of Americans will outweigh the interest of President Bush in your decision making?