DCCC confident? NRCC broke?

The DCCC has been doing some major ad buys in districts across the country but has yet to find the need to do any ad buys for this district yet. So far they have spent money in 32 congressional districts. The NRCC on the other hand hasn't spent any money in this district to support Bob Straniere, but for a very different reason, they are broke. It also may have to do with them having no confidence in Bob from Manhattan. Either way it looks like they have no plans to get involved in this race. It is not a year to be a Republican candidate. It is really not the year to be a Republican candidate no one likes.

Swing State Project is tracking all these expenditures and saving me some time in the process.

Primaries and the DCCC

In another case of anything can happen in a primary, last night a Democratic candidate for Florida's Tenth Congressional District who was placed on the DCCC's emerging races list lost to his primary opponent. While the emerging list is not an endorsement by the DCCC it is a signal that those candidates could perform well and move up to the Red to Blue endorsement. This is not any speculation about what will happen here, simply another example on the influence or lack thereof of the DCCC in primaries. There were multiple candidates in the FL-9 race, whereas in NY-13 there will just be two in a head to head race. Certainly having the DCCC on your side is a strong benefit but it does not guarantee anything.

see also The primary, the DCCC and history lessons

McMahon in DC

The DCCC brought several high profile race candidates to DC for some crash courses on various campaign needs, Mike McMahon was one of a small handful. We get some great reassurance that our chances are good this November;

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi addressed the group at a breakfast on Thursday, and McMahon said she and others who spoke pointed to the 13th Congressional District "as one of the seats most likely for [Democratic] success."

DCCC: Mobilize for Change

I realize not everyone is supportive of the DCCC's involvement in this race before the primary but early voter contact is important and taking this seat away from Republicans is top on my list. If you don't want to work with their national efforts please make sure you are talking to voters on behalf of your candidate.

via the DCCC;

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today it was sponsoring Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action on July 26, 2008 - marking 100 days until Election Day. Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action will boost House Democratic campaigns' efforts to recruit additional volunteers to phone bank and canvass congressional districts across the country. The House campaign that has the most volunteers will win a fundraising email sent on their behalf to our 3 million person strong list.

"Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action is an exciting way for campaigns to boost their volunteer base," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "The DCCC is committed to reaching voters across the country with our message of change and has begun contacting voters earlier than ever before. By starting earlier, Democrats are reaching voters that are not yet being fully bombarded by political messages, which we know from our three special election wins is critical to our success."

The scope and effectiveness of the DCCC's voter contact program this cycle is unprecedented for House campaigns. The DCCC's 2008 voter contact programs began in November 2007 and have already resulted in more than two million voter contacts (door knocks and phone calls). The DCCC tested the effectiveness and improved its enhanced voter contact programs with each of the special elections Democrats won in IL-14, LA-06, and MS-01. The programs are on track to do more than 13 million voter contacts for the cycle in more than 50 districts.

The winner of the Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action contest will be announced next week.

Mobilize for Change website

DCCC to spend $1.3 million on ad buy

Real Clear Politics breaks down a leaked document showing where the DCCC is going to be reserving ad time. As part of a $34.5 ad expenditure they have indicated they will spend $1.3 million of that in the NY13 market.

Still, these numbers can change over the coming months. Reserving time is not the same thing as buying time, and, should Democrats decide one race is easily won or already lost, the party can shift resources to other districts. Having reserved time only ensures the DCCC can spend money before commercial advertisers and other political candidates buy the time remaining, driving prices up.

This is one of the big reasons we see no top tier Republican candidate in this race. The DCCC has flexed their muscles and scared off most candidates without actually having to spend any money. Who really would want to go up against this;

Democrats enjoy a huge financial advantage over Republicans. Through the end of May, the DCCC held $47.1 million in cash reserves, while the National Republican Congressional Committee had just $6.65 million in the bank. That disparity will play a huge role in November, and Democrats are already laying the foundation with the first round of major ad buys.

DCCC's primary involvement

via The Hill;

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has in recent weeks injected itself into almost all of the major primaries remaining despite pledging previously to abstain.

DCCC officials have often said that they would try to avoid mixing in primaries as a general principle, but that they reserved the right to do so under “extraordinary circumstances.”

As the cycle wages on and Republicans appear more vulnerable this November, those extraordinary circumstances have become the norm.

For all of you Harrison supporters you are not alone;

In fact, five of the six races feature a Democratic candidate from the 2006 general election, and none of them were chosen by the committee. Most of these candidates are poorly funded but could pack significant name recognition on primary day.

We will soon see if the poorly funded meme holds true, but regardless that last sentence will be the measure of all things.

note: The article has no comment feature and I can not find contact information for the author, Aaron Blake, but want to correct one of his statements. He says that "Powers and McMahon have both earned the unanimous endorsements of the county parties in their races." McMahon carried the county endorsement vote, but it was not unanimous, 131-40.

The DCCC's role after the primary

I see lots of speculation about what the DCCC's role is in this race. Will they get involved with their ad buys in the primary? Will they not support Harrison if he wins? Pushing these questions often is bad reporting;

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pledged more than $2 million in advertising money for the general election if McMahon beats Steve Harrison, a Bay Ridge lawyer who lost to Fossella in 2006, in the September primary.

I have yet to see an actual quote saying the DCCC will only help McMahon and not Harrison, should he win the primary. There is no source to that in the article anywhere. When you think it through I have a hard time understanding how that quote above can be true at all. The DCCC's essential mission is electing as many Democrats to Congress as possible. They rarely get involved in ideology, they just strive to have as many members of Congress voting with the party on core issues starting with choosing the Speaker of the House and going down the list from there. Should Harrison beat McMahon this September what is the logic behind thinking the DCCC would take their ball and go home? Clearly they want this seat and have shown they will do what ever it takes to flip it, so why then if the person they think is the strongest candidate gets beaten, one can assume the winner then is an even stronger candidate, they will walk away from the race? 2006 has shown us two prime examples of an activist candidate with a much smaller war chest knocking off two DCCC backed candidates and then went on to knock off the Republican incumbents, Rep. Jerry McNerney and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. The DCCC is aware of these races and is helping both of them win their re-election. There is a track record, even if brief that shows if you are able to beat a DCCC endorsed candidate in a primary that you can go on to flip a Republican seat. So I ask if you think the DCCC would walk away from this race if Harrison won, like the Brooklyn Paper does, what evidence is there to support that and better what logic would be behind that?

DCCC reserves $2.1 million in TV ad buys for NY-13

The DCCC is not playing around and intends to flip this seat and is putting up large amounts of money to do so.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $2.1 million in television time this fall to run commercials in the 13th Congressional District campaign, a boon to City Councilman Michael McMahon, the Democratic designee in the race.

"This is very welcome news," said McMahon (D-North Shore), who returned last night from a fund-raising trip to Washington, D.C. "This shows that the DCCC believes in this race and understands this is an expensive media market," he added. "It's the kind of commitment what we will work very hard to deserve."

A Washington source said that the DCCC made this kind of commitment in only three races in 2006.

The DCCC is just reserving the ad buys and can back out of them should the Republican Party fail to nominate a candidate or put up anyone who can offer a real competition. This is nearly one third of the total cash on hand that their Republican counterparts the NRCC have. This has to scare any remaining legitimate Republicans thinking about jumping into this race.

McMahon added to the DCCC's Red to Blue

via the DCCC;

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today the next round of candidates who earned a spot in the DCCC's highly competitive Red to Blue program. These 14 candidates qualified for the third round of the Red to Blue program by surpassing demanding fundraising goals and skillfully demonstrating to voters that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress. The DCCC also released a list of 20 emerging races, where Democratic candidates are running strong campaigns that are generating excitement in their districts.

"The candidates for change being named to the DCCC Red to Blue program are running strong campaigns and are committed to making things easier for middle class families in their districts," said Chris Van Hollen, Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "With less than five months to make their case for change to voters in their districts, the Red to Blue program will give these candidates the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive in November."

Mike MaMahon joins Dan Maffei and Eric Massa, fellow New Yorkers on the DCCC's Red to Blue program. New York will post some major gains for the party this November.

DCCC kind of endorses McMahon

The DCCC who to date has not interjected itself in any race that had a competitive primary has now endorsed Mike McMahon;

Council Member Michael McMahon (D-Staten Island) was publicly endorsed June 13 by the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee (DCCC) in his bid to replaced retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn).

The DCCC made an exception to its rule of not endorsing in a primary—McMahon potentially faces 2006 nominee Steve Harrison—but northeast recruiting head Rep. Steve Israel (D-Suffolk) and DCCC chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Maryland) said McMahon’s candidacy was a special circumstance.

It is unclear whether they will be offering financial support to McMahon. In the above article Dan suggests that McMahon may receive financial support after winning the primary. Liz reiterates that the DCCC itself will not spend money on the primary but leaves open the possibility that he could be added to the coveted Red to Blue program;

The DCCC won't be spending money on the primary. But McMahon has a good shot of getting into its Red-to-Blue fundraising program (10 candidates will be chosen next week) through which donors are encouraged to give to candidates in key races around the country.

The DCCC's Red to Blue program is a way to show supporters races they believe are top tier and encourage supporters to direct their money to particular races. Meanwhile in upstate New York, where there is another open seat, vacated by Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), just like there is here, there is a contested primary. Jon Powers the leading Democratic candidate has wrapped up every Democratic County Party endorsement as well as many of the major town party endorsements. The DCCC has stated publicly they are not getting involved in that primary; (the original Newsday link is no longer active)

"It's an open process and everyone is obviously welcome to battle it out," Van Hollen said. "Obviously I mention (Powers) only because he appears to have a lot of momentum in the Democratic primary. ...From the national committee's perspective, we are not getting involved in the primary."

Interesting juxtaposition on the two races and major pick up opportunities for us.

update: I had misplaced the source for the first quote above. It was a piece by Dan Rivoli for the City Hall News. My apologies.

How cute, the NRCC thinks they will be able to help

The NRCC trails the DCCC $45 million to $6 million. The NRCC taking a cue from Fossella actually went down in cash on hand from March to April. But that won't deter them;

NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (R-Ok.) stopped short of promising campaign cash, but made it clear the GOP will do what it takes to protect the coveted House seat. “The National Republican Congressional Committee will be working quickly to ensure we have a solid Republican contender that will win in November,” he said.

Way to go Republicans. While you can't promise Donovan or Lanza money because you have none you are offering smiles and sunshine. Meanwhile the DCCC has an idea of what to do with their $39 million cash advantage;

“This is very much on our radar screen and we expect it will be one of the most competitive races in the country, so the answer is yes,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen told the Daily News when asked if the DCCC will help finance the race.

Good news though for Republicans. While the party won't be able to infuse any cash in this race they are planning on turning to people who for what ever reason aren't giving them money and ask them to give money directly to the candidates.
via Washington Post;

The party will step up its efforts to establish special fundraising committees for seats with contested GOP primaries occurring late in the season, which will raise cash that will automatically go to the eventual nominees. This fairly common practice will prevent those nominees from starting the general election race at a financial disadvantage after a costly primary. This effort will be led by Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), who lost to Cole in the race to chair the NRCC for this Congress.

My condolences to Donovan and Lanza. But is it really worth giving up your office to jump into a race where you are almost assured to have less cash than your Democratic challenger?

The primary, the DCCC and history lessons

Right now there are two paths to the Democratic nominee depending on when the election is. The first is a standard primary for November which requires Fossella to either resign after July 1 or run again. The second is a special election should Fossella resign before July 1 in which case the party behind closed doors will pick a nominee and there will be nothing else that can be done. Let's take a look at the first path.

Elizabeth Benjamin is reporting that the DCCC is recruiting candidates now that things in this district have taken a turn.

Rep. Steve Israel, a Long Island Democrat who handles recruiting for the DCCC in this neck of the woods, told me today that he has spoken several times to three potential candidates for Rep. Vito Fossella's seat in the 13th CD: Sen. Diane Savino, Councilman Domenic Recchia and Assemblyman Mike Cusick.

Interestingly, the one individual to whom Israel hasn't spoken is the only one who has formally announced his candidacy to date: Brooklyn attorney Steve Harrison, who is mounting his second run for Fossella's seat after coming close - but not close enough - to ousting the Republican congressman last fall.

If I have learned anything so far in covering this district and the media's attempt to understand it, is that very little speculation comes to fruition. Should this be true though and I would suggest not reading too much into the DCCC's involvement and I don't particularly think this means Harrison is done. If we take a look at 2006 there were a handful of notable primaries in which local activist candidates went up against party backed candidates during the primaries. I have highlighted maybe three of the most notable below:

CA-11, Rep. Pombo (R-Incumbent)
Democratic Primary:
Steve Filson 29%, DCCC supported
$510,000

Jerry McNerney 53%, winner
$230,00

NH-01, Rep. Bradley (R-Incumbent)
Democratic Primary:
Jim Craig, NH House Minority Leader, 34%, DCCC supported
$324,000

Carol Shea Porter 54%, winner
$34,000

IL-06, (Open seat, no incumbent)
Democratic Primary:
Tammy Duckworth, 43%, winner, DCCC supported
$517,000

Christine Cegelis, 40%
$318,000

In the three cases two activists candidates easily defeated much better funded DCCC backed candidates, McNerney and Shea Porter. Both went on to defeat their Republican opponents and are now members of Congress. In the third Tammy Duckworth went on to lose to Roskam by only 2%. Do not read into this that DCCC endorsed candidate's don't win or that it harms their campaign just understand that DCCC support absolutely does not equate to a victory or even a better candidate. I thought the DCCC had learned from this as they have been very good at staying out of the race so far but it must look too appetizing for them.

NRCC lists Fossella as vulnerable

His own party is now resorting to throwing money at his campaign and essentially creating a fire wall to stop the loses coming their way this November. Minority Leader Rep. Boehner (R-OH) has created a fund raising effort humorously called Regain Our Majority Program whose mission so far is to protect Republican incumbents including Rep. Vito Fossella. Via CQPolitics;

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

The NRCC is significantly out fund raised by its Democratic rival the DCCC. They are facing serious problems recruiting top tier candidates. They have already lost the seat held by the former Speaker of the House Hastert in a special election and polling shows them down in special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi where they typically win easily. Republicans are in a world of hurt right now and are going to spend money protecting their vulnerable seats instead of going on the offensive. While Fossella has brushed aside the notion that Harrison and Recchia will be a tough campaign for him, his own party sees things differently and they are panicking.

Tom Wrobleski will probably think otherwise but Vito is vulnerable and now both sides recognize it.

Tom Wrobleksi writes more biased articles

First Tom Wrobleski tells us the make believe bad news for the Democratic nominee;

...we're pretty sure that the vacant Reynolds seat will pique mightily the interest of the national Democrats, meaning that there could be less money and resources available from them later to help Recchia or Harrison defeat GOP Rep. Vito Fossella in the fall.

So according to Tom the DCCC, the only national organization in the party that helps with money and resources for Congressional races will not be giving here because they will be interested in giving upstate?

However;

Last week, in fact, the DCCC announced a roster of Democratic congressional challengers who will receive "enhanced fundraising and strategic assistance [from the DCCC] in their 2008 campaigns against Republican incumbents."

You guessed it: Neither Recchia nor Harrison were on the list.

Also not on that list was NY-26, Rep. Reynolds now vacant seat. So let's follow Tom's logic here. Harrison or Recchia will not be getting resources from the DCCC because that money will go to the nominee in NY-26 even though that nominee is not on the DCCC's list either, which was the original reason why Tom thinks Harrison or Recchia won't get any money.

note: Jon Powers is the outstanding Democratic candidate for the open NY-26 seeat. He will be another great addition to our NY State Congressional delegation.

Rep. Renzi down, Fossella soon to follow?

Remember that 6 member list of ethically challenged Republicans Fossella was on? Well Rep. Renzi (R-AZ), one of his fellow list-mates, has been indicted on 35 counts of extortion, conspiracy, money laundering and related charges. via the DCCC;

We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13).

Rep. Renzi had previously resigned from his Congressional committee assignments after the FBI raided a family business. Rep. Renzi has announced he is not seeking re-election but will also not resign before the end of this term despite his indictment. Rep. Doolittle is in a similar situation. He was forced to resign all his committee seats after his house was raided by the FBI. Doolittle will also not seek re-election.

So guesses as to what the dirt on Fossella is?

Vito Fossella's seat "on the front line"

via Elizabeth;

Rep. Steve Israel, a Suffolk County Democrat who is in charge of recruiting candidates for the DCCC in the Northeast, said there are nine Congressional races of note in New York this fall - an embarassment of riches for a state that used to be, as he put it, "a kind of political backwater in national elections."

For now, (until the next Census, that is), New York has 29 Congressional seats, 23 of which are held by Democrats. Israel said the party is trying to "fill in the blanks" with six of those seats.

The Fossella v. Harrison/Recchia race is one of the six NY races Rep. Israel and the DCCC are focusing on. Maybe of most note in the article was this;

Israel stressed that the DCCC will not get involved with candidates until after the September primary, which means Democrats are going to have to slug it out to get the nomination - and the fundraising assistance that comes along with it.

Domenic Recchia is perceived to be the candidate of choice of the DCCC and so any involvement by the DCCC would seemingly be to the benefit of Recchia.

DCCC to go after Rep. Vito Fossella

We hoped. We saw signs. Now it is official. Rep. Van Hollen released a list of the 40 House seats he has on his radar as chairman of the DCCC. Rep. Vito Fossella is one of those targeted seats. Clearly the DCCC believes they can make major gains in NY with four seats on this list (NY13, 25, 26, 29). via Roll Call;

"We're now letting our base know, our supporters around the country know, that it's critical that they now start directing resources to some of our key challengers," Van Hollen said. "We think we've done a good job putting our Frontliners in good shape."

Remember this is even more of an impact given the Republican counterpart to the DCCC, the NRCC like Fossella is in debt and nearly out of money and currently won't be able to bail out Fossella's campaign or even match the DCCC spending here.

h/t to MyDD

DCCC likely to play offense here

Two weeks ago I posed the question will the DCCC play offense here in the 13th in response to news that they plan on going on offense in 40 districts with their millions of dollars cash advantage. That answer appears to be yes!

via The Hill comes a little more detail;

"We have 40 seats at least — and growing — where we have good challengers in place, and that makes for a very big playing field this time around," Van Hollen said at a briefing with reporters.

Van Hollen's list includes some districts Democrats have not competed in for years, including Rep. John Shadegg's (R-Ariz.), Rep. Vito Fossella's (R-N.Y.) and Rep. Steven LaTourette's (R-Ohio).

Bold text my own edit. This is why we compete here a year and a half out. Certainly this has to be some of the worst news for Rep. Vito Fossella.

DCCC plays offense, but will they play here?

via Politico;

"With a huge cash advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee, Van Hollen and Emanuel are cautioning their colleagues that the DCCC wants to have money to put into 40 challenger races next year — and if these vulnerable Democrats are not facing serious races or any effort by the National Republican Congressional Committee to unseat them, the DCCC will spend its resources elsewhere."

This is for the most part only interesting news in this district because if you recall earlier this year the DCCC listed Vito Fossella as one of the most ethically corrupt members of Congress that they were going to target as part of their effort to put 35 seats in play. They are now talking about putting 40 seats in play mostly because the DCCC holds a $23.4 million to $9.5 million cash advantage over the NRCC.

On the opposite side remember that hte horrible fund raising by Vito Fossella's NRCC means he is likely to receive little to no help from them in terms of cash infusions or attack ads on his behalf. The only reason that may change would be if they believe Fossella is in trouble and want to include him as part of their firewall, or fall back line where they will focus on stopping their loses.

Fossella can't rely on NRCC for support

Following on Fossella's 3Q filings and his sub-par fund raising abilities comes more bad news. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), counter part to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is yet again struggling to raise any money and lagging incredibly far behind the DCCC. In fact just like Vito Fossella the NRCC is in operating debt. via the Wall Street Journal;

The Republican congressional campaign committee is in debt, while the Democrats' committee said Wednesday it has raised $28 million.

The article goes on to list many more agonies for the NRCC such as not having the money to recruit challengers to take on incumbent Democrats, having to defend many more seats to retirement than the Democrats (12 R's to 2 D's) and that independents have been breaking towards the Democrats because of opposition to the War, aka Fossella's War in Iraq.

If this doesn't spell bad news for Fossella, it most certainly does not help him sleep at night. His party must start to decide if they spend money defending incumbents, defending open seats or going after Democratic freshmen (typically the easiest incumbents to challenge). Chances are there will be no money coming from the party to help Fossella or in terms of opposition spending (going after the Democratic challenger). Fossella's fund raising is hurting and not likely to get any better as his party already is getting ready for at least another two years in the minority.

If that wasn't bad enough having Independents, the real kind not the kind Fossella claims to be, break for Democrats makes running in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage that much harder. And then there are the conservatives within his own party frustrated at unheard of spending on this war and the chance Fossella could lose the Conservative Party ballot line.

Vito, just retire and then you can take trips to Vail all you want without worrying about those nagging ethics problems.

h/t to Brandon English over at The Stakeholder once again for drawing attention to this WSJ article.