Candidate speculation and dates to watch, May 21
The following is my analysis of the likelihood that potential candidates will declare their intention to run for this seat. This is not intended to capture the likelihood that they will their party's nomination. Latest updates are italicized and in green below. Two new Republican potential candidates have been added.
Dates to watch
Sunday, May 25 - Independence Party candidate interviews
Monday, May 26 - SI Republican Party candidate interviews
May 26-31 - Working Families Party expected to hold candidate interviews
June 3 - Ballot petitioning starts
July 10 - Ballot petitions are due
Potential Republican Candidates

“Dan would be the number one favorite with most people,” said Molinari, via NY1.
He has spoken to Rep. Boehner and other national Republican Congressional leaders. Will be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days.

Lanza appears to have the support of Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia.
He will also be meeting with Jerry Kassar, Kings County Conservative Party leader within the next few days according to the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. For some reason though Jerry Kassar insists that Lanza is an Assembly Member.

Fiala has support of members of the Independence Party.
He has said "I am going to seriously consider this race, I hope to come to a decision in very short order." [via Advance]. Possibly the only advantage to a Fiala candidacy is that his seat is appointed, so if elected to Congress he would not open his seat to a special election that Democrats could pick up.


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ADDED

Potential Democrats Candidates

Harrison is now reported to be in talks with the DCCC.


See: Potential Candidates: City Council Member Mike McMahon.


See: Potential Candidates: Assembly Member Mike Cusick.

See: Potential Candidates: Assembly member Peter Abbate

"State Sen. Diane Savino, has indicated to party officials she likely won’t jump into the crowded field," via the NY Daily News.
She was absent in Tuesday's New York Times article where McMahon and Cusick were quoted as being interested in the race. This likely means she will only consider running if one of those two do not.
See: Potential Candidates: State Senator Diane Savino.

Labels: speculation
1 Comments:
you should link your previous comments on the DCCC, since it relates to how things have unfolded. Harrison, it seems, is the DCCC's 4th choice.
however, like you said in the earlier post(http://ny13.blogspot.com/2008/05/primary-dccc-and-history-lessons.html), we shouldn't hold what they think too highly.
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