CQPolitics list NY-13 as top 5 most likely to flip

via CQ;

here is the update on the five House races CQ Politics rates as most vulnerable to takeover by the challenging party. As was the case when we first published this feature in July, the Top 5 all are Democratic bids to take over Republican-held seats, a reflection of the party’s continued momentum in congressional politics that began with the 2006 campaigns that boosted it into majorities in both the Senate and House.

• New York’s 13th District, in which Republican Rep. Vito J. Fossella was forced to quit his re-election bid after admitting he had a daughter from an ongoing extramarital affair. After their original replacement candidate died suddenly of a heart attack, Republican officials in the New York City borough of Staten Island — home to about three-quarters of the district’s voters — handed their endorsement to Robert Straniere, a former state representative, but they did so over protests from GOP officials in the Brooklyn part of the district. Democratic officials are continuing to bank on their favored candidate, City Councilman Mike McMahon, to win his Sept. 9 primary. CQ Politics rates this race Democrat Favored.

see also: NY-13 now 3rd most likely seat to flip

CQPolitics calls NY-13 top five most likely pick-up nationally

CQ calls out NY-13 first on their top five list of seats that are most vulnerable, and in all five cases it would be Democratic pick-ups in another cycle where voters are preferring the Democratic Party to their counterpart;

So this version of Jigsaw Politics provides a more microscopic look at this year’s competitive race landscape with a list of the five House seats that currently, based on CQ Politics’ ratings and reporting, appear the most vulnerable to take over by the challenging party.

The districts (with links to more details on the races) are:

• New York’s 13th District, in which Republican Rep. Vito J. Fossella was forced to quit his re-election bid after admitting he had a daughter from an ongoing extramarital affair.

The others are IL-11, AZ-01, VA-11, and NY-25. We are looking at a potential four seat pick up in New York state as the voters relegate the Republican Party almost to the status of a minor party.

...the first four races on the Top 5 list were easy picks, as they are the only races so far this year in which either party is rated as having a clear edge to take over a seat.

CQPolitics upgrades race to Dem Favored

via CQPolitics;

The Republicans’ lack of a consensus replacement candidate less than two weeks before the July 10 candidate filing deadline, with no top-tier prospects at hand for the party’s Sept. 9 primary, has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race in New York’s 13th Congressional District to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.

They join Swing State Project who has already upgraded the race to Leans Democratic.

Cook Political Report is lagging, still having this race at toss-up.

After the FEC reports come out these other ratings could shift even further to Likely Dem/Dem Favored.

update
I changed that last paragraph to indicate the analysts other than CQ who have not shifted their ratings to Likely/Favored status.

Race shifts back in Democrats favor, now "no clear favorite"

CQpolitics for some reasons had shifted their ranking of this race from no clear favorite to leans Republican and is now shifting it back to no clear favorite;

The personal scandal that caused the stunning political downfall of Republican Rep. Vito Fossella, and his party’s stumbling efforts to recruit a candidate to succeed him in New York’s 13th Congressional District, have prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

Swing State Project already had this at "toss-up" the equivilent of no clear favorite. As did Cook Political Report. This seat will soon become "Leans Democratic," likely after a strong FEC filing by McMahon and Harrison.

update fixed the Swing State Project link

Several analysts upgrade race to "toss up"

Swing State Project;

In the wake of what appears to be a career-ending scandal for Staten Island GOP Rep. Vito Fossella, the Swing State Project is updating its NY-13 race rating from "Likely Republican" to "Tossup".

Cook Political Report moves race from Likely Republican to Toss Up

CQ Politics;

Fossella’s admission Thursday that he fathered a child outside of his marriage, which came on the heels of a May 1 drunken driving arrest, has led to rumors he may resign. Because so many pieces of the race remain unsettled, CQ Politics is changing its rating on the race from Safe Republican to No Clear Favorite.

NRCC lists Fossella as vulnerable

His own party is now resorting to throwing money at his campaign and essentially creating a fire wall to stop the loses coming their way this November. Minority Leader Rep. Boehner (R-OH) has created a fund raising effort humorously called Regain Our Majority Program whose mission so far is to protect Republican incumbents including Rep. Vito Fossella. Via CQPolitics;

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

The NRCC is significantly out fund raised by its Democratic rival the DCCC. They are facing serious problems recruiting top tier candidates. They have already lost the seat held by the former Speaker of the House Hastert in a special election and polling shows them down in special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi where they typically win easily. Republicans are in a world of hurt right now and are going to spend money protecting their vulnerable seats instead of going on the offensive. While Fossella has brushed aside the notion that Harrison and Recchia will be a tough campaign for him, his own party sees things differently and they are panicking.

Tom Wrobleski will probably think otherwise but Vito is vulnerable and now both sides recognize it.

Voters not identifying with Republican party in NY

via CQPolitics;

The Democratic Party has increased its margin in voters who identify with it rather than Republicans, and going into this year’s election has increased its advantage among independent voters and in swing states, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted during the first two months of this year.

Pew says voters now favor the Democrats by a “decidedly larger margin” than the previous two election cycles.

snip

In key “blue” states, the larger Democratic margins is more a matter of Republican declines than Democratic gains. In New York (31 electoral votes), Democrats gained 3 points in identification while Republicans lost 6 since 2004 and in New Jersey (15 electoral votes), Democrats slipped by 1 point while Republicans fell by 7.