Democratic Advancement PAC endorses Steve Harrison

via Harrison press release;

National Democratic Organization endorses Steve Harrison

Democratic Advancement PAC (DAPAC) endorses Staten Island/Southwest Brooklyn Congressional candidate

(Seattle, WA) National Democratic Organization, the Democratic Advancement PAC (DAPAC) is endorsing NY 13th Congressional district candidate (Staten Island/Southwest Brooklyn) Steve Harrison, who is running against Vito Fossella, New York City’s only House Republican. Against Fossella in 2006, Harrison received a higher percentage of the vote than any Democrat ever under the Congressional District’s current configuration.

DAPAC’S mission is to help progressive Democratic Candidates run and win. They provide tactical and strategic support for their endorsed candidates, including fundraising and getting out the vote (GOTV) expertise. DAPAC has generated over 250,000 phone calls on behalf of the candidates they support.

“Harrison supports taking immediate steps to end the war in Iraq, publicly funded, single payer, universal healthcare and strong environmental protection,” says DAPAC President Tom Cramer. “He has pledged to vote for these crucial issues once in Congress. DAPAC is proud to add him as a newly endorsed candidate.”

DAPAC has endorsed only six 2008 Congressional candidates besides Harrison thus far. Among them is Sam Bennett (PA 15th), who along with Harrison were among the “Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq’s” original 10 endorsers (responsibleplan.com). The Responsible Plan, which has received national broadcast, print and online media coverage, outlines a detailed approach to end the war. Among DAPAC’s previous endorsees is Democratic Congressional Committee Chair (DCCC) Chris Van Hollen.

For more information about Steve Harrison visit steveharrisonforcongress.com. For more information about DAPAC visit dapac.org.

Tom Wrobleski, Concern Troll

via Wikipedia;

The concern troll posts in web forums devoted to its declared point of view and attempts to sway the group's actions or opinions while claiming to share their goals, but with professed "concerns". The goal is to sow fear, uncertainty and doubt within the group.

Tom starts off telling us that presidential candidate Sen. Obama has not raised as much money in Staten Island as Sens. Clinton or McCain. Thus;

Which could mean trouble for borough Democratic candidates -- especially those who are aiming to run against GOP Rep. Vito Fossella -- if Obama wins the party nomination.

The fundraising totals from Staten Island are;
Clinton - $111,348
McCain - $48,820
Obama - $33,762

more Tom;

In other words, congressional hopefuls Steve Harrison and Domenic Recchia had better hope that Hillary finds some way to win the Democratic nomination.

So Harrison and Recchia are in trouble if Obama is the nominee according to Tom because McCain has raised more money on the island and thus has more support. Thus the concern trolling. Tom wants us to believe he is just stating some facts and raising concerns for the public to think about but he stops well short of presenting his case in an unbiased fashion. Why does Tom not continue that line of thought to say Fossella and McCain are in trouble if Sen. Clinton is the nominee seeing how she clearly blew McCain away in fund raising on the island?

Instead Tom pulls out his infamous "source" whom he never attempts to show has any knowledge or credibility and hopes you don't question him. This source goes on to lay out the argument that Republicans are just going to win Staten Island even if Sen. Clinton is the nominee, it is how the island works we are told. Aside from that continued lack of credibility this line of reporting has, should it be true what is the purpose then of this article? Why is his slant that Obama will hurt Harrison and Recchia instead of simply writing an article that Staten Island votes for Republicans. It seems the biggest thing stopping that is that it wouldn't be news worthy.

Tom gets creative with Fossella's numbers

via Tom Wrobleski;

GOP Rep. Vito Fossella has banked $851,000 or so for the race thus far (not counting whatever came in at last week's Dick Cheney fundraiser and other recent money events), good enough for fifth place on the money list among the New York GOP candidates listed on the Federal Election Commission website.

A few other statistics overlooked.

* Fossella trails every other Republican incumbent in New York in cash on hand, the most useful metric
* Fossella an incumbent trails three Republican challengers from other districts in terms of fund raising totals, none of them in the NYC media market
* Fossella was fifth place out of 17 in terms of funds raised, however 6 of those raised $60,000 or less
* Fossella trails only two other candidates in terms of money spent

note: It actually appears as though one of the other candidates with more money wasted at this point has misfiled or there is a mistake on the FEC's end as their expenditures is equal to exactly their contributions, so this more likely than not should be their cash on hand.

This would mean while Fossella is 5th out of 17 (really 5 out of 11) in terms of money raised, he is second in terms of money spent/wasted at this point. Additionally this contradicts Tom's statement that Fossella banked $851,000. That would imply that that money is available to him. In fact he has banked $248,000, with over $600,000 already gone to massive campaign expenditures. But I guess Tom's version is another way you could look at all of this.

update:
Let's take a look at the second part of Tom's article;

Democratic City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who's raised about $350,000, ranks 24th out of 41 Democratic candidates

* 20 candidates ahead of Recchia are incumbents, only 1 challenger has out raised their incumbent opponent (Eric Massa, D, NY-29)
* 1 of the three challengers ahead of Recchia is Dan Maffei. Maffei nearly won his seat in 06 with losing 49-51% and forced the Republican into retirement this year. Neither of his two Republican opponents have an FEC filing yet so he essentially is an incumbent at this point.

So while Tom likes to paint a picture that Fossella is 5th among Republicans and Recchia is 24th among Democrats in cash raised let's realize that Fossella is last among incumbents in cash on hand and one of the most prolific spenders of campaign money at this point while Recchia is essentially third of three competitive Democratic challengers. There is also that one minor point that Recchia has more money than Fossella right now.

Recchia has 131% more money than Fossella

Swing State Project put together a list comparing incumbents to their challengers in terms of available cash on hand. Domenic Recchia is #5 with 131% the cash on hand that Vito Fossella currently holds.

1923 Days Later

via USA Today;

The Army has accelerated its policy of involuntary extensions of duty to bolster its troop levels, despite Defense Secretary Robert Gates' order last year to limit it, Pentagon records show.

snip

Since then, the number of soldiers forced to remain in the Army rose 43% to 12,235 in March. The reliance on stop loss has increased as the military has sent more troops to Iraq and extended tours to 15 months to support an escalation in U.S. forces ordered by President Bush. The increase last month was driven by the need to send more National Guard soldiers to Iraq.

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: cash on hand

Cash on Hand is the actual cash a candidate has in the bank that they can spend today if needed. This is probably a better metric to look at compared to total contributions. While Fossella is likely to bring in over $1 million dollars the question for this cycle is how much will he actually have to spend against his Democratic opponent?



Fossella has done well raising cash, even though it is noticably lower than in the past. However he is blowing through that cash faster than he probably ever has. This cycle he has raised $850,000 yet he has already spent $600,000 of that. That is simply astounding given he is not actively campaigning.

At the end of his 2002 election he had one of the highest cash on hand totals in the past four elections. We see he spent nearly all of it holding onto his seat and started off with very little in 2003. After that he steadily raising his cash on hand total for four years straight even while having two competitive elections during that time period; Barbaro in 2004 and Harrison in 2006. After the 2006 election he had almost no money left at all, and actually carried more debt than cash at that point. Even though 2004 and 2006 had his most competitive races he started each of those with an overwhelming cash on hand advantage that meant his opponents would probably never be able to catch him. That is not this case this cycle. Due to his struggle against Harrison in 2006 he was forced to spend all of his money and now trails Domenic Recchia in cash on hand.

If you take out the fourth quarter from 2007 he actually has been bleeding money each quarter this cycle instead of saving. His cash on hand from Q2 to Q3 in 2007 went down. Again his cash on hand from Q4 to Q1 of 2008 went down. Since 2002 he has never started a cycle with this little money and since 2002 he has never gone into an election year with this little money available. In his last election he had twice the cash that he does now.

If you notice the trends in 2006 as Harrison's campaign became a stronger opponent for Fossella his cash on hand fell each quarter going into the election. We can expect an even harder fight this year and should see his cash falling, if not between Q1 and Q2 you should expect to see it fall going into September from Q2 to Q3. I can't believe that Fossella wanted to associated himself with Dick Cheney but with numbers and trends like this he had little options left to save himself;

via the NY Times;

“Republicans in New York are in free fall, and Cheney’s visit to New York just proves Vito Fossella’s campaign is flagging,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. “Rather than bring home necessary resources to meet the needs of his district, Vito Fossella is embracing Dick Cheney and his Big Oil money to resurrect his failing campaign.”

Cheney's fund raiser should really boost Fossella's next filing. If with all of that money Recchia and/or Harrison are still able to stay ahead of Fossella in cash on hand expect to see this race get bumped up in rankings by the various firms.

Fossella is vulnerable. Humorously he is putting himself in that position because of his inability to manage and spend money, not quite as fiscally conservative as he would have you believe.

see also:
Part I: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: fund raising
Part II: Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: campaign expenditures

Even more coverage of the Fossella and Cheney fund raiser

* Cheney stumps for Vito — yet he still leads!, The Brooklyn Paper;

The widely unpopular veep endorsed Fossella (R–Bay Ridge) at an Upper East Side fete on April 21, but opponents were more than pleased that Fossella had called in a man described by his critics as a “Prince of Darkness” to fill the coffers.

“Who is Vito Fossella going to be beholden to if he is elected?” Democratic candidate Steve Harrison asked a crowd of protestors outside the 71st Street home of billionaire industrialist David Koch, who hosted the fundraiser. “It will be Dick Cheney.

“These are not people from whom you [should] accept campaign contributions — these are the people to whom you give campaign contributions back when you find out who they are,” added Harrison, who got 43 percent of the vote against the cash-rich Fossella in 2006.

see also:

* Steve Harrison on Fossella and Cheney fundraiser

* More coverage of Dick Cheney and Vito Fossella fundraiser

NRCC deems Fossella vulnerable but can they help?

The NRCC has decided to try and bail out a flailing Fossella campaign by adding him to their Regain Our Majority Program, which despite its name seems to only funnel money to incumbents and is more of a 'Retain What We Have Program'. While their naming and spin are funny what may top that is that they probably have a worse fund raising cycle than Vito Fossella.

Steve Harrison sent out a campaign emailing hitting him on this;

The GOP has finally learned that supporters of the Harrison campaign are serious about getting America working again.

Earlier this week, the Regain Our Majority Program (ROMP) released a list of Republican candidates who will need even more aid to attempt to hold on to their seats.

You guessed it – Vito Fossella is on that list.

As of March 30, 2008 the NRCC has $7 million cash on hand to their rival the DCCC's $44.3 million. But before they start giving Fossella any money there are a few special elections for open formerly held Republican seats that they would like to keep and thus have to spend a little money on. Unfortunately one of those seats, IL-14 IL-04, Dennis Hassert's former seat went to Democrat Rep. Bill Foster, but not before the NRCC dropped $1.2 million into the race. This happened in March, so it is already accounted for in the NRCC's money and won't come out of that $7 million but is good to see how they are being forced to waste all of their resources before fall. This seat by the way has an R +4.5 PVI, meaning it is generally 6 points more favorable to Republicans than Fossella's seat.

Next up is MS-01, which as a R +10 PVI. The NRCC dropped $300,000 into that only to come up second, but forcing a run-off in a district that easily went for Bush. The Democratic candidate took 49.3% of the vote and is in very good shape to take this seat considering how extremely Republican leaning it is. Now MS-01 will have to go another round of elections and certainly more money will be spent. Chances are the Republican candidate spent everything trying to win this the first time so most resources will have to come from the NRCC coffers. This has to make Republicans everywhere cringe.

Then there is LA-06, R+7 PVI, where the NRCC has already dropped $250,000 and will certainly spend more as the May election approaches.

The NRCC has already spent over $550,000 in just those two races, and neither are over, that is not going to go into to saving Fossella's seat. So the NRCC is going to bail out Fossella, but who is going to bail out the NRCC?

update: New totals in. The NRCC is now in for $570,518 in MS-01 and $312,206 in LA-06. They will have spent well over $1 million trying to protect these extremely Republican seats.

Sunday House Party for Harrison

Sun., Apr. 27, 2008
Hosts: David Michaelson and Joy Romanski
Time: 3-6:00 pm
Phone: 718-624-8384
Location: 50 Willow Street #1, Brooklyn Heights [Google Maps]

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: campaign expenditures

I previously wrote about Fossella's contributions per quarter and trends that show that he brought in significantly less funds in 2007 than he had in 2005 and that in election years he tends to bring in less. This suggests this could be one of his lowest fund raising cycles. Now we take a look at this expenditures.



The first trend to notice is that during election years (red) Fossella spends much more money than he does is on the non-election years (orange). This is typical of all campaigns. I am pointing it out though because you need to look ahead and see how this is going to hurt his campaign. He nearly doubles his expenditure rate in election years, which we are in now. So we should expect to see his expenditures drastically increasing and in fact we have already seen this happening in 2007. This cycle he has had the highest expenditure rate in the second, third and fourth quarter in a non election year.

Fossella's expenditures for the first quarter are already over $150,000 and we should expect that to only go up. This becomes problematic for him considering last quarter he spent more money than he raised. If this continues his cash on hand will actually start to quickly drop, as it did in the first quarter. We saw this happen in 2006 and is not a rare event. In 2006 his expenditures outpaced his contributions, the difference being then he was sitting on $600,000 cash compared to his current level of $249,000. His current fund raising drought and spending problem leads to him being forced to ask Dick Cheney to financially bail him out. Oh and the NRCC.

What is curious about Fossella's recent spending habits is that none of this is being spent on any real campaigning costs. He is not actively running ads. He is not actively canvassing or doing literature drops. He has raised $850,000, yet only has $249,000 of that left. So how is he burning through $600,000 in non campaign costs? What does he have to show for it, I am not sure. I am certainly happy that he is doing it and will make it easier to take him on this fall if he continues to display this type of 'fiscal conservatism'. The question for his donors to then ask is how does he afford to actually campaign when the race really gets under way and legitimate expenses start taking off.

So he is having trouble keeping up with his past fund raising levels. Now he is having trouble cutting his massive spending habits. Fossella is vulnerable and most of it is due to his own failures.

Vito Fossella's recent legislative votes

Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act, HR 5719
Vote Passed (238-179, 14 Not Voting)

The House passed this bill intended to simplify the federal tax system.

Rep. Vito Fossella voted NO

Steve Harrison on Fossella and Cheney fundraiser

Coverage;
* Harrison Talks Green, Slams Fossella and Cheney, Daily Politics

Harrison goes on to assail Cheney and his history with Halliburton, adding: "We know how he feels about the environment. And who is Vito Fossella going to be beholden to if he's elected will be Dick Cheney. We can't allow that to happen."

* Harrison Doth Protest, Tom, polit.bureau
* Cheney Attends Fossella Fundraiser To Boost City’s Only GOP Congressman, Brooklyn Daily Eagle
* Fossella entertains Cheney at billionaire's fund-raiser, SI Advance

Democrat Stephen Harrison lambasted Fossella for joining with Koch, whose oil company has been fined millions of dollars for environmental violations.

snip

He said the fund-raiser featuring Cheney, whose approval rating hovers around 20 percent, "shows that Congressman Fossella continues to be out of touch with what's happening out there."

NYS Dem Party assails Fossella over Cheney and Oil money

via NYS Dem Party;

FLAILING FOSSELLA CAMPAIGN BRINGS IN VP CHENEY TO RAISE BIG OIL MONEY

New York City – Today Vice President Dick Cheney came to Park Avenue to raise money from oil executives for his longtime buddy, Congressman Vito Fossella. At a fundraising luncheon at the Park Avenue home of billionaire oil executive David Koch, Cheney helped pad Fossella’s re-election campaign with money from Big Oil.

“What can we expect from Congressman Fossella in return? Higher prices at the pump and no accountability for oil companies banking record profits,” said NYS Democratic Chair June O’Neill.

“Vito Fossella’s campaign must be in serious trouble to have to import Dick Cheney and his oil buddies,” said O’Neill. “Vito Fossella has already received nearly a hundred thousand dollars in campaign contributions from Big Oil and sends his thanks by consistently voting against laws that would conserve energy. It’s sad that as gas prices continue to rise and too many are without health care, Vito Fossella is accepting thousands of dollars from the very people who are furthering the squeeze on the middle class. Vito Fossella should spend his time helping middle class families deal with rising gas prices instead of rubbing elbows with oil executives and Dick Cheney on Park Avenue.”

Vito Fossella’s votes in congress have consistently favored Big Oil to the determinant of the middle class. Whether it’s voting to cut Big Oil subsidies or voting for middle class tax cuts, Vito is always on the side of special interests.

Background information on Fossella’s “Thank You” to Big Oil for their past checks:

*Representative Fossella voted against the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act (H.R. 5351), which will end unnecessary taxpayer subsidies to Big Oil companies and use that money to make investments in clean, renewable energy and promote energy conservation. [H.R. 5351, #84 http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll084.xml , 2/27/08]

*In 2005, Representative Vito Fossella voted in favor of the energy conference report that included an estimated $85 billion worth of subsidies and tax breaks for most forms of energy – including oil and gas. [HR 6, Vote #445 http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2005/roll445.xml , 7/28/05]

*Representative Vito Fossella receives strong financial support from Big Oil. Representative Fossella has received $81,800 from Big Oil contributors. [OpenSecrets.org]

Votes against the Middle Class

*Representative Vito Fosella voted against a budget that contained middle class tax relief in the form of AMT reform for 20 million American families.

*The budget also created thousands of new jobs through funding of the innovation agenda, renewable energy development and green jobs

*The bill also contained investments in infrastructure development and repair. [H Con Res 312 establishes the budget for the government of the United States for Fiscal Year 2009. http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll141.xml

More coverage of Dick Cheney and Vito Fossella fundraiser

* The Brooklyn Paper; Dick Loves Vito, with podcast!

* Daily Politics covers the Cheney visit, and by cover they give it a short sentence buried down the page of updates;

VP Dick Cheney is in town today to attend a fundraiser for Rep. Vito Fossella.

* The NYTimes covers it, as we mentioned last night;

Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to attend a fund-raising luncheon on Monday in Manhattan on behalf of United States Representative Vito J. Fossella Jr., who is running for a sixth full term. Mr. Cheney’s visit puts a spotlight on a race that Democrats believe they can contest even though Mr. Fossella is an incumbent from the strongly Republican 13th Congressional District.

* Joshing Politics;

Why on Earth would Dick hang around a liberal town like ours for any longer than necessary? Well, its to raise money on the bi-partisanly (sp?) rich Upper East Side for the anti-troop, anti-Staten Island Republican Congressman Vito Fossella that supposedly represents the borough.

NYTimes covers Fossella and Cheney fundraiser

via the NYTimes;

The fund-raiser for Mr. Fossella will be at the Upper East Side home of David H. Koch, the billionaire executive vice president of Koch Industries, a company with major oil and gas holdings.

Democrats from Staten Island to Washington said that Mr. Cheney’s support signaled that the Bush administration had to come to Mr. Fossella’s aid.

“Republicans in New York are in free fall, and Cheney’s visit to New York just proves Vito Fossella’s campaign is flagging,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington. “Rather than bring home necessary resources to meet the needs of his district, Vito Fossella is embracing Dick Cheney and his Big Oil money to resurrect his failing campaign.”

Remember today's protest at 10am.

Vito Fossella's vulnerabilities: fund raising

I have broken down Vito Fossella's contributions, expenditures and cash on hand per quarter since 2002 to get an idea of how things are shaping up for his campaign this cycle. First contributions per quarter;



His campaign previously claimed;

“The committee raises between $1.2 and $1.8 million every election cycle and we are on track to reach our goals this cycle as well,” said Kaye.

I already covered why this is not truthful with $1.5 million being the most he raised outside of his '97 special election. The fun part though now is that with just two and a half quarters left to raise money Fossella will need to pull in $150,000 per quarter just to reach $1.2 million. Fossella barely pulled this in in the last quarter. Looking back at election years he hasn't passed $200,000 in a quarter in the past two cycles (during election years) so it seems likely that he will fall short of $1.3 million on a very optimistic and favorable extrapolation. In 2006 his numbers actually went down during the 2 and 3 quarters leading up to the election. This will get much more interesting when we look at expenditures.

The next trend to notice is off election year (odd years) totals. Fossella managed to bring in significantly more money in 2005 than he has been able to do in 2007. His fund raising is on the decline, on top of the debt that strapped his campaign for the past six quarters.

While Fossella's campaign will try to spin their fund raising and set false expectations all you have to do it take a look at the real numbers and see there a lot of signs that his contributions are heading in the wrong direction.

Next: Expenditures

Vito Fossella brings Dick Cheney to NYC for help, protests Monday

via Truth13;

Progressive groups protest Dick Cheney/Koch Industries’ Vito Fossella fundraiser

Truth 13 and other progressive groups are organizing a protest Monday morning [April 21] outside a fundraiser for New York City’s only Republican House member, Vito Fossella, organized by Vice President Dick Cheney and polluters Koch Industries (pronounced Coke)..

Fossella’s Democratic opponent Steve Harrison is scheduled to appear.

When: 10 AM Monday April 21
Where: 740 Park Avenue (71st Street). [Google Maps]

About Truth 13: Founded in 2007, Truth 13 is an independent group of concerned citizens dedicated to removing New York's 13th Congressional District representative Vito Fossella from office. Their mission is to educate voters of the 13th Congressional District about their Congressperson's track record of voting for the interests of organizations like Koch industries instead of those of his constituents.

Here is another example of Fossella's vulnerability. Dick Cheney has a 15% approval rating, meaning a majority of his own party disapproves of him. Fossella clearly believes Cheney's money is far more important to his campaign right now than worrying about being associated with this administration. Fossella has had Cheney raise money for him before, but never has he openly flaunted his regard for Dick Cheney.

update: Democrats.com are joining the protests and just sent out an email to supporters asking for their participation;

Vice President Cheney will be in town shilling for cash for NY Congressman Vito Fossella. They'll be hosted by NYC's wealthiest resident, David Koch, the billionaire head of Koch Industries, a conglomerate with hugely polluting oil and gas holdings. Koch Industries is the second largest privately-held company in the U.S. and a major contributor to Republican campaigns.

Let's tell the luncheon guests: Fossella must go!

1816 Days Later

via the Washington Post, Combat Stress May Cost U.S. Up to $6 Billion;

About 300,000 U.S. military personnel who have deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depression, a mental toll that will cost the nation as much as $6.2 billion over two years, according to a Rand Corp. report released yesterday.

In addition, nearly 20 percent of the 1.64 million veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan, or about 320,000 personnel, reported a probable traumatic brain injury (TBI) during deployment, the report notes, although it says their treatment needs have not been determined.

Rothenberg Political Report: NY-13 Republican Favored

The Rothenberg Political Report came out with its political ratings today. They list Vito Fossella as "Republican Favored" and give this overall explanation of their rankings;

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party.

Thus they place this race as not a definite for Fossella, which should be expected. Two weeks before the election last cycle CQPolitics moved the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored, signaling the beginning of a downward slope for Fossella, thanks to Harrison's run for the seat;

Yet despite this successful track record, Fossella has felt the need to go vigorously on the offensive against an underfunded Democratic candidate, attorney Steve Harrison, an unusual tactic for an incumbent expecting a landslide.

With New York 13 hardly immune to the volatile political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year, CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

With recent FEC filings showing Fossella now trailing in money, probably the first time since '97 that this has happened, I would expect to start seeing some movement in these rankings. Harrison moved this from a safe seat to a seat in play given the right conditions. The race is now starting out as Republican Favored this year. If the vulnerabilities I am seeing are true expect to start seeing this seat slide to Likely Republican/Leans Republican and beyond.

Signs of vulnerability, Fossella commissions poll

I was reading through FEC filings (who doesn't?) and found an interesting bit, Vito Fossella had spent $26,000 on polling back in January. Fossella hired Public Opinion Strategies for an unknown polling opperation;



Now Real Clear Politics has picked this up in their roundup on FEC filings;

Fossella spent more than $25,000 on polling with the very reputable Public Opinion Strategies this quarter, so if he starts hauling in a lot more money and getting aggressive, one could surmise that the poll held at least some bad news that scared the five-term incumbent.

Real Clear Politics was pointing out Fossella massive burn rate on contributions and how Recchia has now passed him on cash on hand putting Fossella in unchartered territory, being behind in the money game. That aside his commission of this polling has to be a good sign for Democrats regardless of the results. You do not spend that money on polling if you are easily going to coast to victory. In August of 2006 Fossella again commissioned a poll which seemed to have indicated potential trouble for him. While he never made any of the results public he did go on soon after to finally agree to debates with Harrison and started making himself more visible in the district. Fossella is doing this eight months earlier than he did last cycle. Consider this another sign of concern for Fossella. No matter how you look at it you can't spin this as a sign of strength.

Confirmed: Chris Ward stole from Vito Fossella's campaign

And the Chris Ward story is once again causing trouble for Vito Fossella. via Tom;

Christopher Ward, former NRCC treasurer, misappropriated $6,000 from Rep. Vito Fossella's re-election campaign in early January, according to the latest filing by the Fossella campaign with the Federal Election Commission. Fossella's campaign is the fourth GOP committee to report monetary diversions by Ward, although the NRCC suspects he may have pilfered "several hundred thousand" dollars beginning in 2003.

I am not sure if this is just for one quarter, this cycle or all of Ward's time as Fossella's treasurer. Certainly this will require greater scrutiny of Fossella's finances and a trip down memory lane for his staff of days when they were in much better financial shape.

Oil tops $115 barrel, Fossella silent

Oil broken $100 per barrel for the first time ever this year. At $105 a barrel a month ago, Fossella was typically silent. When it topped $110 a barrel a week after that Fossella again had no comment. Today oil broke $115 a barrel before closing at $114.

Hopefully by now you know that Vito Fossella infamously released a press release tirade on President Bill Clinton in 2000 when oil was approaching $30 a barrel;

...the Administration lacks a clear and comprehensive energy policy. Today we are sending a wake-up call to the Energy Department and others that Americans could be hit with escalating electricity rates this summer. Its failure to act following OPEC's production cutbacks last year and its subsequent decision to ignore our warnings of price surges for home heating oil and gas have mired us in this current predicament."

At what point will Fossella heed his own wake up call? My guess is once he can again blame a Democratic President. So January.

Vito Fossella trails Recchia in cash on hand

Tom is reporting first quarter FEC numbers that show Vito Fossella now far behind Recchia in available cash. Based on his numbers here is how the first quarter results look compared to where we were back at the end of December 2007 (last quarter numbers in parenthesis);

Q1
Fossella (R): $148,641 ($304,453)
Harrison (D): $43,878 ($69,230)
Recchia (D): $129,690 ($220,770)

COH
Fossella: $248,496 ($250,501)
Harrison: $91,131 ($83,116)
Recchia: $325,175 ($206,451)

This is huge if correct. Not only is Recchia ahead by $75,000 it appears that Vito Fossella not only already spent all the money he raised from January to March but in fact has less money now than he did at the end of December. He is going backwards in terms of fundraising. While Fossella will have raised $850,000 to date, he has spent $600,000 of that and isn't even campaigning yet. A question I will be curious to see an answer to is whether or not Fossella was able to finally get completely out of the massive debt he incurred in order to beat Harrison on 2006.

see: Fossella in Financial Trouble and Denial, part III

DFNYC opening endorsement voting

Tonight was the candidate forum hosted by DFNYC, Stonewall Democratic Club, Three Parks Independent Democratic Club, Village Reform Democratic Club and Truth 13. The featured guests were to be Steve Harrison and Domenic Recchia. As of late this afternoon only Harrison had confirmed his attendance.

Tonight is also the opening of the endorsement voting for DFNYC in this race. Unlike many of the political clubs in the city voting members of DFNYC have attendance requirements to become a voting member, so this is not something that can easily be stacked. Harrison seems to be well received so far by members of the organization who have held events and fundraisers for him. Most of this support comes from his participation and progressive and grassroot outreach that is coming on strong this election. I have a hard time seeing how he does not easily win this endorsement and add it to his list. Here was my analysis of a DFNYC endorsement following Harrison's PDA endorsement;

PDA could bring invaluable volunteers into this race and if I had the option of having the volunteer advantage or the fund raising advantage I would gladly take the volunteers. You can buy ads and literature all you want, but if you don't have a ground game distributing those, talking to voters and getting them to the polls they are useless. If Democracy for America (DFA) follows suit and gets involved in this race on Harrison's behalf, which would not surprise me given DFNYC's involvement, I would think Harrison would quickly have the advantage in this race. I would also give him a sizable and experienced volunteer advantage. DFNYC enthusiastically campaigned for Barbaro in 2004 so they do have some history with this district and wanting to take out Fossella.

Check out dfnyc.org for voting information. Also this is another reason to join their mailing list if you have not done so alredy. You can signup at that link as well.

Q1 Fundraising results

Cash raised from Jan-Mar 2008. via Tom;

Fossella: $148,641
Harrison: $43,878
Recchia: $129,690

Vito Fossella's recent legislative votes

National Landscape Conservation System Act, H.R. 2016
Vote Passed (278-140, 12 Not Voting)

The House voted to give permanent statutory protection to the Department of Interior’s National Landscape Conservation System, a 26 million-acre network of monuments, scenic trails, and conservation and wildlife areas.

The National Landscape Conservation System is a 26 million acre collection of national monuments, wilderness areas, scenic rivers, trails, and historic sites. These crown jewels are the last places to experience the history and wild beauty of the American West, with hunting, fishing, access to the rugged outdoors, and opportunities to create your own adventure.

The Bureau of Land Management's Conservation System was designated seven years ago, but without further support there is no guarantee that the System will be around in another seven years. Only Congress can permanently establish the Conservation System as the last great network of American protected lands. [via ConservationSystem.org]

Rep. Vito Fossella voted NO


Relating to the consideration of the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, H.Res. 1092
Vote Passed (224-195, 1 Present, 12 Not Voting)

This House resolution removes the 90-day provision requiring Congress to vote on the United States-Colombia Free Trade bill.

Rep. Vito Fossella voted NO

Why won't Vito Fossella support our troops: 306 Days

It has been 306 days since HR 2702 has been introduced in Congress and Vito Fossella has yet to co-sign the bill. I already wrote up what the bill is about last week in the first post on this entitled; Why won't Vito Fossella support our troops?

Today I want to focus on squashing any claims that this is a partisan bill being pushed by Democrats as a reason why Fossella is refusing to offer his support. In the immediate vicinity of Fossella and his Congressional district these local Republican members of Congress have co-signed the bill:

- Peter King (NY-03)
- Chris Shays (CT-04)
- Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02)
- Mike Ferguson (NJ-07)

Even nationally there are many conservative Republicans who understand the importance of this bill and have agreed to co-sign this and support our troops as they return home. A very quick look turns up;

- Don Young (AK-AL)
- Jon Porter (NV-03)
- Tim Murphy (PA-18)
- Ginny Brown-Waite (FL-05)
- Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02)

So this is not a partisan issue. The question then remains why won't Vito Fossella support our troops?

1,809 Days Later

More coverage of 'A Responsible Plan'

via Brooklyn Daily Eagle;

On Tuesday Harrison joined other Democratic Congressional candidates across the nation by submitting their own six “Questions for Petreaus” on the Iraq War. It was among questions submitted by the “Responsible Plan Candidates” to General David Petraeus, U.S. Iraq war commander, and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, who testified before Congress this week.

Vito Fossella shows us his leadership

In a Letter to the Editor exchange, Craig Donnor, Vito Fossella's spokesperson writes into the Advance in response to George Rosquist's Letter to the Editor asking where Fossella has been in the Staten Island hospital crisis. Craig manages to unintentionally make this very amusing for us and bad for his boss.

George Rosquist is right to be concerned about the closing of three Richmond University Medical Center clinics (Your Opinion, March 25). There's no dispute that Staten Island's health-care system faces innumerable challenges, which have put us on the verge of crisis.

It is always nice when Vito Fossella's own spokesperson agrees with concerned constituents. The best part of his rebuttle though is this comment from Craig and the editorial footnote following;

However, he is wrong to suggest that Rep. Vito Fossella has done "nothing" to fix the problem. Most recently, Congressman Fossella took the lead in urging Staten Island University Hospital to take over those three clinics -- an initiative the hospital is actively pursuing.

[Editor's note: Since this letter was written, Staten Island University Hospital announced that it will not take over the RUMC clinics in Clifton.]

Let's have Craig Donnor wrap this up for us reiterating a question Mr. Rosquist asked;

To answer Mr. Rosquist's question, "Where is Rep. Fossella for his constituents in this crisis?," I'd say the facts show he's exactly where he should be -- fighting hard for the people of Staten Island.

Congratulations Vito Fossella. We already knew Fossella has very little clout in DC, now he shows us he has none at home in the district either. I recommend he has his campaign staff spend more time working to negotiate with Staten Island University Hospital instead of writing letters like this one by Craig attacking his critics. And if that isn't possible and if all of this is any indication of what his leadership can do maybe he should stop "taking the lead."

Vito Fossella's campaign shows more signs of vulnerability

Following the announcement that Fossella's own party thinks he is vulnerable and will throw money at his race comes this news;

Dick Cheney will be a featured guest at an April 21 fund-raising lunch for Vito Fossella, the city’s only Republican congressman, a sign that the national Republican Party is putting in a major effort to hold onto the seat.

If you didn't think Fossella was scared or at the very least taking his re-election very serious given the challengers he is facing, he is bringing Dick Cheney in for a fund raiser. Dick Cheney has an approval rating around 22%, worse than the President who many Republicans will not campaign with in their districts. Now Fossella will continue to tell people he is an "independent" as a way to create separation between himself and the President but that description is now moot given he is stooping to bring someone nearly 4/5 of the country despises in to help shore up his failing fund raising efforts. Fossella is not bringing Cheney to town for fun, Fossella is vulnerable.

update: This isn't the first time Dick Cheney has helped Vito Fossella

NRCC lists Fossella as vulnerable

His own party is now resorting to throwing money at his campaign and essentially creating a fire wall to stop the loses coming their way this November. Minority Leader Rep. Boehner (R-OH) has created a fund raising effort humorously called Regain Our Majority Program whose mission so far is to protect Republican incumbents including Rep. Vito Fossella. Via CQPolitics;

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

The NRCC is significantly out fund raised by its Democratic rival the DCCC. They are facing serious problems recruiting top tier candidates. They have already lost the seat held by the former Speaker of the House Hastert in a special election and polling shows them down in special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi where they typically win easily. Republicans are in a world of hurt right now and are going to spend money protecting their vulnerable seats instead of going on the offensive. While Fossella has brushed aside the notion that Harrison and Recchia will be a tough campaign for him, his own party sees things differently and they are panicking.

Tom Wrobleski will probably think otherwise but Vito is vulnerable and now both sides recognize it.

Republicans facing hard times in New York

via NY Times;

In some cases, potential candidates see a tough climate for Republicans, largely because of a troubled economy and a protracted war, according to some Republicans.

snip

Republicans have had difficulty recruiting top-tier candidates in several other states, including Ohio and Indiana. But the problems have been especially pronounced in New York, a heavily Democratic state where Democrats picked up three Republican-held seats in 2006. Republicans are in danger of suffering more losses this year, analysts say.

Emphasis in that quote my own. Stay tuned for Tom Wrobleski to explain to use how this is bad news for Democrats. In the mean time for the rest of us living in reality it is fun to watch the Republican brand fall apart in New York.

DFNYC candidate forum April 15

via DFNYC email;

Join Democracy for NYC, Stonewall Democratic Club, Three Parks Independent Democratic Club and Village Reform Democratic Club for a candidate forum in the Democratic primary in the 13th Congressional District:

When: April 15, 2008, 6:30pm

Where: Lafayette Grill and Bar, 54 Franklin Street [Google Map]

Candidates:
Steven Harrison (invited, confirmed), Councilmember Dominic Recchia (invited, not yet confirmed)

Subway: Take the N,R,Q,6, C and A trains to Canal Street or the 1 train to Franklin Street.

The 13th District is currently represented by Republican Vito Fossella. As New York City’s only Republican member of Congress, Fossella has been a rubber-stamp for the Bush-Cheney White House.

The District covers Staten Island and part of southwest Brooklyn. This forum is being held in Manhattan to make it possible for many people to attend. Please contact us if you know of any candidate forums in the 13th CD, as we would be happy to help promote: info@dfnyc.org.

Harrison submits questions for Gen. Patraeus on Iraq

Today the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held hearings with General Patraeus on progress in Iraq. The Democratic candidates who have endorsed A Responsible Plan have submitted the questions they want Gen. Patraeus to answer. via a Harrison press release;

Responsible Plan Democratic Congressional challengers submit Iraq hearing questions

Steve Harrison (NY-13 Staten Island/Southwest Brooklyn), Darcy Burner (WA-8), Donna Edwards (MD4), Eric Massa (NY-29) and other top tier Congressional challengers

(Washington DC) Democratic Congressional candidate Steve Harrison and a group of other leading Democratic Congressional challengers dubbed the “Responsible Plan Candidates” have compiled a list a questions they would ask if they were already in the House , of General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who are testifying this week before congress. These candidates have been given this moniker because for their support of the “Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq” (responsibleplan.com), which calls for Congress to end U.S. military involvement in Iraq, restore government accountability and work toward energy independence.

Harrison is challenging Vito Fossella, New York City’s only Republican House member. Against Fossella in 2006, Harrison received a higher percentage of the vote than any Democrat ever under the Congressional District’s current configuration.

Below are Harrison’s questions.

Questions for Petraeus

1. General do you believe advocating for a withdrawal from Iraq necessarily indicates either a lack of support for our troops, or a lack of patriotism?

2. General, troop withdrawal is a military operation. Given the current conditions in Iraq, in your expert opinion, what would be a reasonable time frame for complete withdrawal assuming the planning started tomorrow?

3.General, Prime Minister Maliki's surprising attack on the Sadr militia last week showed great weakness in the government's ability to provide security as well as weakness in the government's political ability to unite the country. It also showed great lack of judgment in the capabilities of his military. The Iraqi situation shows no signs of near term stability and it does not appear American military presence has facilitated that goal. In the absence of being able to meet that political goal, what other military goals, in your opinion justify American military presence in Iraq?

4. Expanding on the prior question, almost immediately after beginning the attack, the Iraqi troops needed American air support. The Iraqi's seem to have some helicopters and troop transports but no effective fighter aircraft or pilots capable of supplying air cover. The US has been training and equipping Iraqi forces for years now. Can you explain the near total absence of an effective Iraqi air wing?

5. General, the New York Times reports that the long and repeated troop tours in Iraq are having great effect on the mental health of our troops. One in four is considered to be severely depressed or anxious. Please explain how this affects troop effectiveness, explain the solution and explain what the defense department is planning to help those troops who are suffering so severely because of the excessive troop tours.

6. General I have heard that, in reporting troop deaths, only deaths that occur in Iraq from direct combat are counted. I understand that deaths that occur outside Iraq, say in Rein Air Force base in Germany or in a VA in the States are not counted even if the injuries that caused the death occurred in combat in Iraq. I also understand that suicides that appear to relate directly to tours in Iraq, which are very high relative to the general population, are not counted toward the toll. Please tell us if what I hear is accurate and explain the criteria for statistical inclusion. If my information is correct, how many more troop deaths would be attributable to the Iraqi war if such deaths were included?

update: Steve's questions get picked up by OpenLeft.com

update 2: Tom actually covers this in full without any of his typical biased attacks on Steve

Why won't Vito Fossella support our troops?

Vito Fossella has thus far not signed onto HR 2702 the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act of 2007. The bill is the House version of Sen. Webb's Senate Bill 22 by the same name. It is referred to as the post 9/11 G.I. Bill. Via Senator Webb's website;

Under the legislation (S.22 in the Senate, H.R.2702 in the House), returning service members could earn up to 36 months of benefits, equivalent to four academic years, which would include payment of tuition, books and fees, as well as a $1,000 a month living stipend for those veterans whose military service qualifies them for the program.

snip

“As someone who has served our country, I can tell you that the current Montgomery G.I. Bill is not adequate. This is a peacetime bill, and we must expand it to accommodate our men and women returning from overseas. There is no better way to support our troops than to ensure that they re-acclimate into daily life seamlessly and that they have a bright future ahead of them. A comprehensive G.I. bill, like the one we are introducing today, is a way to achieve this.” said Congressman Christopher P. Carney, who serves as a Lt. Commander in the U.S. Navy Reserve.

snip

“Once an enlistment enticement, educational assistance has now become a transition necessity. This legislation is the right thing to do for those who are willing to take up arms and defend this great nation, something less than one percent of Americans are willing to do,” said Frank Yoakum, SGM (ret.), Legislative Director, Enlisted Association of the National Guard of the United States (EANGUS).

“Education is an expensive endeavor; many veterans can not afford to use the current G.I. Bill. The measure proposed by Senator Webb and Congressman Scott is an investment in our troops, an investment in our veterans, and an investment in our nation,” said Eric Hilleman, Deputy Director of Legislative Affairs, Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW).

We often hear Rep. Vito Fossella claim support of the troops and use that phrase to demean attempts by his opponents to bring an end to this war. When it comes down to it though it is Rep. Vito Fossella who is serving in Congress and failing to support our troops. Why has he refused to co-sign onto this bill for ten months now? Maybe he believes as long as the war continues our troops will not be home to utilize these benefits.

Fossella losing Bloomberg's support over congestion pricing?

via the NY Post;

While congestion pricing has been a windfall for some, the issue has created a dilemma for Mayor Bloomberg, who now finds himself in an awkward position with a longtime ally.

Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island, Brooklyn) is refusing to take a position on congestion pricing. But City Councilman Dominic Recchia (D-Brooklyn), who is gearing up to run against Fossella, is supporting the controversial proposal.

So whom does Bloomberg support, his longtime Republican pal or a Democrat who lined up with the mayor at a critical juncture?

Bloomberg has said repeatedly that he'll be supporting elected officials who support the city, i.e. congestion pricing.

Congestion pricing seems to have died today with an announcement that the State Assembly will not be taking up the legislation. This might end up taking some heat off of Fossella who may be the only elected official in the city refusing to publicly state his opinion on the matter.

1,802 Days Later

Congestion Pricing Round-up

* Via Tom;

Brooklyn City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who wants to be your U.S. congressman, voted in favor of congestion pricing yesterday.

His opponent in the Democratic congressional primary here, Steve Harrison, is against the proposal.

* via Sally in the Advance;

Although congestion pricing is a city and state issue, it is getting mixed into the heated Democratic primary for the race to succeed Rep. Vito Fossella.

snip

During his speech, Recchia echoed the mayor's mantra that charging drivers $8 for entering Manhattan south of 60th Street between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. on weekdays, a fee from which existing tolls would be deducted, would raise funds for mass transit projects in the five boroughs.

Harrison, who opposes congestion pricing, argued that it attempts to serve opposing interests: If people are in fact deterred by the toll and take mass transit, it may not raise sufficient funds. If drivers stay in their cars and pour extra funds into the public transportation system, the city's air will not benefit, he said.

* Sally again from later in that article;

Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) did not return calls for comment on congestion pricing, and has not taken a public position on the issue, which requires votes on the city and state levels but is being bolstered by a promise of federal funds.

Of course Fossella did not return calls nor will he state his position on congestion pricing. Vito Fossella who won't even comment or suggest any policy for Iraq. He doesn't really see his job as a congressman as one of policy creation and legislation as much as he thinks it is about ski trips.

note: let me know if you see anymore articles on congestion pricing and any of the candidates.

Harrison appearing at congesting pricing event

via a Harrison email;

As you may know, Steve has spoken out against the congestion pricing plan approved by the City Council on Monday. The legislature must vote on it by April 7th. If you agree with Steve and want to send a message to Albany that they should not pass this legislation, please come to this event - Steve (as well as other community leaders and elected officials) will be speaking:

SIBRO CIVIC (Staten Island/Brooklyn Civic) & SOUTH BEACH CIVIC

are hosting a SPEAK OUT AGAINST CONGESTION PRICING event

SUNDAY, April 6th at 7pm at

Xavarian High School
7100 Shore Road
Brooklyn, NY 11209
[Google Map]

Harrison on congestion pricing

via Harrison press release;

Staten Island and Brooklyn residents protest Bloomberg’s congestion pricing plan

Democratic Congressional candidate Steve Harrison leads group of Staten Island & Brooklyn protesters at press conference

(Staten Island) Democratic Congressional Candidate Steve Harrison (NY 13th CD, Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn) will lead a group of Staten Island and Brooklyn residents protesting Mayor Bloomberg’s congestion pricing plan at a 2 pm April 3 press conference inside the Staten Island Ferry Terminal.

Harrison, who is running against Vito Fossella, New York City’s only House Republican, does not oppose congestion reduction in theory, just Bloomberg’s plan.

According to Harrison using the congestion pricing stick to force working and middle class drivers into already overcrowded trains, buses and ferries, while the limo taking CEOs targeted by the plan will continue to drive in because they can easily absorb the fees, is unfair. He prefers a carrot approach of improving service first to get people off the roads. “The Mayor’s plan puts the cart before the horse,” says Harrison.

The plan is billed as a green initiative with the contradictory goals of reducing pollution and improving public transportation. “These goals will allegedly be accomplished by charging a fee to drive in lower Manhattan. The theory is that the fee will force many drivers off the road and, at the same time, the collected fees will be used to finance public transit improvements,“ says Harrison.

Harrison continues, “The contradiction here is glaring. The green objectives of the plan and the revenue raising objectives work at cross purposes. Every commuter forced off the road is one less driver to pay the fee. If the fee is set high enough to drive cars off the road and commuters into trains and buses, revenues will go down because there will be fewer drivers to pay the fee. There will be insufficient funds to pay for transit improvements. On the other hand, if fees are set so low that revenues are maximized, traffic and emissions will continue unabated and the green objectives will fail.”

“There is simply no incentive to set the congestion pricing fee at a level that would significantly reduce traffic and emissions. On the contrary, fees must actually be set to encourage a certain minimum level of traffic in the congestion pricing zone to sustain the cash flow.”

The Bloomberg plan’s exemption from filing an environmental impact statement causes Harrison to question congestion proposal’s “greenness”. “Exempting this plan from an Environmental Impact Statement under SEQRA is unconscionable. If it is truly a green initiative it should go through a green process - SEQRA. The fact that those who support the initiative want it waived is a good indication that they fear the results of such a review. There is no study whatsoever to indicate what will happen to metropolitan area traffic patterns as a result of this major change.”

I would support a congestion reduction plan that accomplishes green objectives. This plan is not that plan.”

As solutions to encourage mass transit use, Harrison advocates creating high speed ferries in Staten Island and Brooklyn and extending the Westshore railway into Jersey. In the interim, he advocates expanding current ferry and bus schedules to encourage people to avoid driving into Manhattan. Harrison will also discuss his proposals to eliminate the Verrazano toll for Congressional District residents on both sides of the bridge and collect from non-district residents with boothless technology similar to what the congestion pricing plan will use.

DFNYC Candidate Forum

via email;

Forum - Democrats Running Against Vito Fossella in CD 13, April 14 or 15

We are in the process of putting together a forum with other groups with Steven Harrison and Councilmember Dominic Recchia, the Democratic candidates running against incumbent Republican Congressman Vito Fossella in the 13th district (Staten Island and Brooklyn). The event will likely take place either Monday, April 14, or Tuesday April 15th, but details and date are tentative. Please stay tuned to upcoming news letters and the events section of our website:

http://dfnyc.org > Events > Events Calendar

If you aren't on DFNYC's email list you should join. Also they have a monthly meeting in Sheepshead Bay, unfortunately it was tonight. Join the email to get alerts on next month's and the upcoming candidate forum.